New York could face redistricting deja vu after court hands massive legal win to Dems: expert

New York’s highest court handed Democrats a massive win ahead of the 2024 election cycle, ordering a state commission to redraw congressional district lines as the party tries to regain seats lost during 2022's elections. 

The New York’s Court of Appeals’ decision last week ordered the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission [IRC] to submit congressional maps to the state Legislature by Feb. 28. However, the state could land in a similar messy redistricting situation as 2022, according to New York-based Republican election attorney Joseph Burns. 

"If you go back to 2022, those maps were challenged, the state Senate and congressional maps were thrown out, then you had the special master drawing the Senate and congressional districts. Well, what that resulted in was two separate primary elections. One that was set by the judge for the Senate and Congress in August, and then the one for every other office … in June," Burns said. 

"Look, is it possible we could be back at that again this year if the new maps that are approved are challenged in court? It's entirely possible. I can tell you, going through 2022, it wasn't a fun experience."

NY COURT DECISION GIVES DEMS INSIDE TRACK ON COMPETITIVE HOUSE DISTRICTS

New York has been in the midst of a redistricting saga stretching back to before the 2022 election cycle. Voters in the Empire State approved an amendment to the state’s constitution in 2014 that reformed its redistricting process and prohibited partisan gerrymandering. It ultimately created the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission, which is tasked with redrawing congressional lines. 

The commission, however, failed to reach a consensus ahead of the 2022 election, allowing the Democrat-controlled legislature to step in and draw the maps.

NEW YORK LEGAL BATTLE UNFOLDS AS STATE'S HIGH COURT REVIEWS LAWSUIT WITH POTENTIAL TO REDRAW HOUSE MAP

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the redrawn maps into law, sparking legal action from Republicans that the maps gave Democrats the upper hand in 22 of the state’s 26 districts. A county judge at the time struck down the Democrat-drawn maps before Democrats in the state took the case to the Court of Appeals.

The Court of Appeals also struck down the map and appointed a "special master" to redraw the congressional lines ahead of the 2022 election. Republicans that year won five out of the six competitive House races in New York and flipped four blue seats red.

The state was forced to hold two primaries in 2022 amid the confusion, which was speculated to carry heavy costs footed by taxpayers. Primaries in New York typically cost between $40 million and $60 million, Bloomberg Government reported last year, to cover costs for everything from printing ballots to compensating poll workers. Holding two primaries was speculated to subsequently run taxpayers roughly $120 million. 

With the court’s ruling last week directing the commission to redraw the maps on a tight deadline, the state could potentially relive a similar situation in 2022 if Republicans challenge the new maps, Burns speculated.

One lawsuit was already floated even before the court’s ruling last Tuesday, when a group called Stop NY Corruption said the maps must remain as they were in 2022. 

NEW YORK'S LEGAL BID TO REDRAW HOUSE MAP COULD DECIDE CONTROL OF CHAMBER

"Stop NY Corruption's position is that the IRC should simply adopt the current Congressional map, as-is.  After all, the Democrats did not object to the maps in their lawsuit - they don't think the maps are unfair or gerrymandered, so there's no reason whatsoever to redraw new maps," the office of constitutional attorney Bobbie Anne Cox told Fox News Digital on Tuesday. Cox serves as the executive director of Stop NY Corruption. 

The office added that a potential lawsuit "will depend upon whether or not the IRC adopts the current maps, or if not, what the resulting new maps look like." 

Burns explained that New York is an incredibly unique state due to its state constitution’s strong language forbidding partisan gerrymandering. 

"It's the strongest prohibition on partisan gerrymandering in any state constitution in the country. And again, these things have to be litigated. Each side presents their experts, and certainly, you could expect one side to produce an expert saying it is a gerrymander, and the other side producing an expert saying it's not a partisan gerrymander," Burns said. 

The election attorney has long been sounding off against redistricting ahead of 2024, filing an amicus curiae with the Court of Appeals on behalf of the Lawyers Democracy Fund earlier this year urging the court to keep the maps as they were in 2022. 

"Part of the amicus brief that I put into the court of appeals … is that it's either impossible or it's going to create such a fiasco [to redraw the lines]," Burns told Fox News Digital in an interview ahead of the court’s ruling last week. 

"… And there's a number of administrative problems that our local boards of elections are going to encounter. And when you have those administrative problems, that's when … people inadvertently get disenfranchised. Do we really want that to happen? I don't think so."

DRAFT OF NY CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING MAP 'ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL' FOR DEMS

The Court of Appeals has also recently undergone a leadership change, when the chief judge who oversaw the 2022 redistricting challenge resigned last year and was replaced by Chief Judge Rowan D. Wilson, who authored this year's court opinion ordering the maps be redrawn. Both judges are members of the Democratic Party. 

"Because of the change at the Court of Appeals, [Democrats] may think to themselves that even if they do put forward an egregiously gerrymandered map, they might think that they have better odds at surviving a court challenge because of that personnel change," he said. 

Burns said after the ruling that not all Democrats and left-leaning groups are likely on board with the order to redistrict, citing the League of Women Voters of New York and their previous work advocating against partisan gerrymandering. 

"One pretty vocal voice on the left against the gerrymander from last year, and certainly against allowing the second round this year, was the League of Women Voters. Which is certainly a decidedly left-of-center organization. But I think it's fair to say that they are their true-believing progressives and not partisan gunslingers. They were a key part of the coalition that advocated for the anti-gerrymandering amendment in 2014," he said. 

The publisher of Black Westchester, a Black-owned newspaper based in Westchester County, New York, told Fox News Digital that Black voters are concerned redistricting could disenfranchise voters. 

"The Black Community in Westchester is worried about how the state plans to redraw the districts. It appears the boundaries of important Black districts in the 16th and 17th have been shifted in a manner reminiscent of a game change, potentially disenfranchising Black voters following the election of two Black men. We are closely monitoring the situation, and some organizations are considering the possibility of taking legal action," Damon K. Jones told Fox News Digital. 

Jones was referring to Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who represents the 16th Congressional District, and former 17th Congressional District Congressman Mondaire Jones. Jones was a victim of the 2022 redistricting process, which put him in the same district as former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. Jones moved into Manhattan to run in the Democratic primary in the 10th Congressional District in New York City, losing to former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman, who went on to win the general election. 

Rep. Michael lawler defeated Maloney accounting for one of the blue congressional seats that flipped red that year.

While Bowman defeated his Republican challenger that same year, he is currently under scrutiny from voters who argue he does not support Israel amid an ongoing war against Hamas while he squares off against a pro-Israel primary challenger. He is also facing controversy for pulling a fire alarm in September in the Cannon House Office Building amid a dramatic floor vote despite there being no immediate danger. 

"When we get to redrawing these districts … Democratic leadership is looking to maximize their gains, that could mean that some Democratically-held seats need to get a bit more Republican in the process. So you don't know how it's all going to shake out but it's certainly possible that some incumbent Democratic members might be a little wary of what these map makers are looking to do," Burns said. 

The independent commission has until Feb. 28 to redraw the maps, which will then be sent to the Democratic-controlled Legislature to approve or tweak the maps. 

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Burns added that voters and New York politicos "fasten your seat belts" for the 2024 election cycle - before the year has even officially kicked off. 

"I never thought I would see anything like I saw in 2022, where we had these maps get thrown out, the primary get moved, you had two primaries in 2022. I never thought I'd see anything like that, but the way things are headed … if you're a New York voter, if you're a New York politico, fasten your seat belts," he said.