This is a rush transcript of "Special Report with Bret Baier" on October 10, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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BETSY JOHNSON, (I) OREGON GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: It's homelessness, its crime, it's open-air drug dealing. People are frightened and they are mad.

BLAKE MASTERS, (R) ARIZONA SENATE NOMINEE: Everything is on fire. Our southern border is a disaster. Crime keeps going up.

TIFFANY SMILEY, (R) WASHINGTON SENATE NOMINEE: We have homeless encampments. We have people on drugs walking around our streets with no plan and no hope in sight.

JOSH SHAPIRO, (D) PENNSYLVANIA ATTORNEY GENERAL: People have a right to both be safe and feel safe in their communities. And we need more police in our communities.

CLAUDIA TENNEY, (R) NEW YORK REPRESENTATIVE: People are starting to recognize, even Democrats, that Joe Biden and his administration and the policies and his lack of competence is dangerous to our country.

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BAIER: Sights and sounds about the conversation over the weekend as we get closer, 29 days till the midterm election. Meantime, a Democratic consultant everybody knows, James Carville, by the Associated Press, gave this quote, "A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots, that will win for us. I don't think so. It is a good issue, but if you just sit there and they are pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you have got to be more aggressive than just yelling "abortion" every other word."

So let's bring in our panel, Harold Ford Jr., former Tennessee Congressman, co-host of THE FIVE, former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, and Matthew Continetti, fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ari, what do you think about what Carville said there and how this race is shaping up?

ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: He is 100 percent right, particularly in the battleground districts. What he is saying may be true in an overwhelmingly Democratic district, but the places where the November election will come down to are obviously the battlegrounds where you have much more 50-50 contests, and pure Democrat rhetoric won't cut it.

So I think, Bret, when you look at this selection, the biggest trends still is a historical one. The party in power almost always loses a significant number of seats in its first midterm. That will happen again in just four weeks. The Democrats are on track to lose the House of Representatives. The Senate remains a jump ball. I think it's still 50-50. I would bet that it comes down to 51-49 after a long night watching election results.

BAIER: We'll see. The progressives, Harold, are also piping up, Bernie Sanders telling "The Guardian," "Democrats shouldn't focus on only abortion in the midterms. That's a mistake. I'm alarmed to hear the advice that many Democrats candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded super PACs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion, cut the 30nd abortion ads and coast to victory. If Democrats do not fight back on economic issues and present a strong pro-worker agenda, they could well be in the minority in both the House and the Senate next year."

Is seems like Bernie Sanders is laying the table out there.

HAROLD FORD JR., FORMER TENNESSEE REPRESENTATIVE: I think Bernie -- first off, thanks for having me. I think Bernie Sanders and James Carville have it right. The Republicans have laid out, I think, two agendas. I think Rick Scott has laid out an agenda and Kevin McCarthy has laid out an agenda. And I think it's a positive when the parties let you know where they stand.

And the country is going to have an opportunity to choose. Do you want prescription drugs that are negotiated by Medicare which Democrats want, but it doesn't seem Republicans do? Do you want a fully funded police bill which Democrats all voted for, Republicans didn't. And do you want Zelenskyy to be supported, which many if not all Democrats want, and it feels like some Republicans don't.

This is not a statement about good or bad on these things, but these are things that I agree with. I think we should have Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices. I think we should fund mental health services. When Ari and I were on maybe a few months back, it was a terrible day, the Uvalde shooting was, and we both talked about the need for mental health services. Congress had an opportunity to pass a bill last week, and every Republican but one Congressman voted against it.

These are the things Democrats should lay out. Abortion alone is not going to lead us to victory. It's an important issue. It's an important freedom that women and families and doctors enjoy, but we have to make this about our future, and our economic future at that.

BAIER: Speaking of economics, Matthew, two voices that people listen to when it comes to that, Larry Summers and Jamie Dimon.

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LARRY SUMMERS, FORMER TREASURY SECRETARY: I think it's more likely than not that sometime in the next year or 18 months we will have a recession. I think that that is a consequence of the excesses that the economy has been through.

JAMIE DIMON, JPMORGAN CHASE CEO: These are very, very serious things, which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world, I mean, Europe is already in recession, and likely to put U.S. in some kind of recession six or nine months from now.

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BAIER: Really, a lot of people focus on that more than anything else, Matthew.

MATTHEW CONTINETTI, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: That's right, Bret. And if you ask voters today, most Americans will say that they are currently in a recession, they feel as though they are in a recession, and that's because inflation has cut their standard of living by a dramatic extent. Inflation is the issue for this midterm. The recession will be the issue for Democrats in 2024.

And I think that the reason that the Democrats are waking up to the fact that they are going to have a long night in four weeks is that on the issues that matter most to independent voters, the economy, crime, and the border, the Republicans have the advantage, and that will be decisive.

BAIER: OK, as you look at our FOX News power rankings for the Senate, and it's very close, Republicans need to pick up two. The yellow is the toss- ups in the middle, and then you have lean D and lean R, there are 10 total races there.

Just ticking down the toss-ups, Georgia, you have Warnock up in the average of polls about four, obviously Herschel Walker, we haven't seen the latest polls after that. Let's put up Georgia, here we go. Arizona is next. This is Mark Kelly just had a debate over Masters, still has a lead. Nevada, it's the other way around where the incumbent Democrat is trailing the opponent in Laxalt. And Pennsylvania is still a very tight race in Pennsylvania, and the latest polls. Ari, of those, what do you think is a most interesting those battles?

FLEISCHER: Well, I think Nevada is the most interesting. I think that's the one where Republicans have the greatest likelihood of gaining a seat. If you're the Democrats, Pennsylvania is the most likely place that they might gain a seat. That would be a hold for Republicans if Mehmet Oz can win that seat.

But Bret, I also think the polls, and we have seen this in the last several elections, understate, undercount Republican vote. And I think they do it by about two to four percentage points. And if this historical trend is what I think it is, if it's still a red wave, Republicans have a much bigger upside potential on election night than the Democrats do.

BAIER: Harold, if that's true, if what Ari just said is true about the polling, those lean D actually fall into the yellow toss-up categories and become possibilities for Republicans.

FORD: Look, I think Ari is right. Historically, it's hard to dispute that.

I think that the wild card here is really, as much as abortion can't be the closing issue, that 20 points win in Kansas for those who believe in reproductive rights, and the race in New York, the special election just a few weeks ago where abortion was on the ballot with essentially a Democrat arguing that and a Republican arguing that Biden was not up to the job on economics, inflation, et cetera, and the Democrat won, that's a seat that has gone back and forth. It's going to come down to turn out, and swing voters in this issue are going to be, much like they were in Virginia, they were parents. They might be women in a lot of these places, and we'll have to see what happens.

BAIER: All right, panel, thank you very much.

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