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NFL

There's finally an NFL MVP frontrunner, odds say

Tom Brady, as of November 23, has separated from the pack on the FanDuel Sportsbook

By Bobby Burack OutKick
Published | Updated
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After 11 weeks, football experts can hardly make a definitive statement about a single NFL team. It’s unclear which team is the best and which teams are even Super Bowl-caliber. Meanwhile, the sportsbooks have finally found separation among this year’s MVP race.

Tom Brady, as of November 23, has separated from the pack on the FanDuel Sportsbook:

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TAMPA, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 24: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers calls out instructions in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears in the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

TAMPA, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 24: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers calls out instructions in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears in the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

In May, when no one else did, I told bettors to consider Tom Brady for MVP at +1700. Not to brag, of course.

If you didn’t listen to me, it’s now best to stay away from Brady at +270. Brady may be in the lead but has not secured the award by any measure. The MVP race remains wide open, paving the way for bets with better value.

Enter Dak Prescott at +900.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. 

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo.  (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Prescott has completed nearly 70% of his passes this season and will clinch a playoff berth for the Cowboys before the season’s final two weeks. Because the NFL, particularly this season, is such a week-to-week league, the MVP award will go to the player who finishes the season with the most momentum. With a soft remaining schedule, Prescott could check that box.

The Cowboys’ schedule goes as follows: Raiders, Saints, Football Team (twice), Giants, Cardinals, and Eagles. Dallas may finish the season on a 6-1 run.

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Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first half of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first half of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Jonathan Taylor entered the MVP discussion on Sunday with five touchdowns against the Bills. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky called Taylor "the MVP of the NFL" after the performance. So Taylor’s worth a look at +2500. On the other hand, the Colts are two games behind the Titans in the AFC South. To bet on a running back who plays for a Wild Card team takes a level of confidence few have — including me, the expert.

Finally, Aaron Rodgers may be the NFL’s most valuable player. We saw how the Packers looked without Rodgers against the Chiefs. And Rodgers is still the best QB in the league. However, the media will never — ever, ever — vote for Rodgers after he "misled" them on his vaccine status. It won’t happen.