SPORTS

NASCAR playoff rankings: Kyle Larson the favorite, Joey Logano slides in

By Bob Pockrass FOX Sports
Published

While the NASCAR playoffs are designed to have unpredictable moments where anything is possible, the top seven drivers in the regular-season standings have survived the opening two rounds.

Only Joey Logano, who was 15th in the regular-season standings, has made the Round of 8 (NASCAR's version of the semifinal round).

So there are no layups in this round as far as a driver who got hot but isn't expected to make much noise. Logano, a two-time Cup champion, can't be ignored.

Kyle Larson, with six wins this year (no other driver has more than three), is the favorite.

[Related: NASCAR takeaways: Alex Bowman DQ'd from playoffs, Joey Logano gets Round of 8 spot] 

"When you look at the next four tracks, Denny [Hamlin] could win at any of them," Larson said. "Then I think William [Byron], too. He's sneaky good. [Ryan] Blaney for sure as well.

"You can make a case for anybody in the final eight."

NASCAR's version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don't get stage points) crowned the champion.

In each round, the advancing drivers' point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.

The tracks:

Here's my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot. Last week's rankings went 1-to-12 but with now four drivers eliminated, there are only eight drivers in these rankings.

1. Kyle Larson (Last Week: 1)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 1st, +33 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 1st

Larson is now the prohibitive favorite. He has won at each of the tracks in the semifinal round, including the last two races at Las Vegas. The round starts with two races at 1.5-mile tracks, and Larson has two wins at those style tracks this year with 322 laps led. Barring a disaster, he should make it to the championship round.

Prediction: Champion (no change)

2. Christopher Bell (LW: 3)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 2nd, +13 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 33rd

Bell has finished seventh or better in seven of the last eight races, and last year he opened this round with a second at Las Vegas and a win at Homestead. If he finishes top-seven in these three races, he should advance with no problem. He's a driver who has been fast and should earn stage points as well. 

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

3. William Byron (LW: 2)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +4 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 10th

This round fits in Byron's wheelhouse as he has one career win at Las Vegas, one at Homestead and two at Martinsville. He also hasn't raced with much pressure, advancing to this round with a race to spare. As Larson said, he's sneaky fast. 

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

4. Denny Hamlin (LW: 6)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 6th, -8 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 8th

Hamlin has been looking forward to this round the entire playoffs, he just needed to get here. He has one career win at Vegas, three at Homestead and five at Martinsville. He knows anything can happen — he was 30th at Homestead last year, so a third-place finish at Martinsville wasn't good enough. He has to feel he has gotten his bad luck out of the way already this year.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in semifinal round)

5. Chase Elliott (LW: 4)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 7th, -9 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 12th

Elliott didn't run well at these three tracks in the semifinal round last year, but he wasn't even in the playoffs last year. His one win this year was at a 1.5-mile track (Texas) so that should mean good things at Vegas and Homestead. He's been solid in the playoffs, and will need to be in this round as he starts at a deficit.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

6. Ryan Blaney (LW: 5)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 5th, -4 on playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 3rd

Blaney won the title last year thanks in part to having a semifinal round with finishes of sixth, second and fifth. If he can do that again, that should give him a chance to defend his crown. But it might not be that simple. He hasn't totally hit the stride he had at this point last year.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

7. Tyler Reddick (LW: 7)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 3rd, +10 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 2nd

Reddick might have a 10-point cushion but if he runs in the playoffs as he has in the first two rounds, he will become just another driver who won the regular-season title to not make the championship round. Las Vegas and Homestead are good tracks for him, but Martinsville could be a struggle (although he was seventh there in the spring).

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

8. Joey Logano (LW: 9)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: 8th, -11 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Las Vegas Finish: 9th

Logano left Charlotte thinking he was out of the playoffs and then found out he was in after the Bowman disqualification. Even with the new life in the playoffs (pending a possible Bowman appeal), Logano is going to have to be better than he has been to make the championship round. As a two-time Cup champion, though, he knows how to do that. He does have a win at each of the tracks in this round.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from eliminated in quarterfinal round)

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.