2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Only three AFC spots remain; NFC race down to the wire
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}With three weeks to go, the entire AFC playoff field is just about set. Four teams have clinched, three more are close, and the Kansas City Chiefs are in a pretty good position to clinch the No. 1 seed.
But the NFC has set itself up for a wild sprint to the finish, both at the top and the bottom of the field.
At the top, the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and now the Minnesota Vikings are all tied with records of 12-2. All three of them have a shot to end up with home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, depending on what happens down the stretch.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}And at the other end, the Los Angeles Rams have rolled right into playoff position, while the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals remain right on their heels. There's even some serious heat on the upstart Washington Commanders for the final spot in the NFC field.
There's only three weeks left, but still a long way to go. Here is the entire NFL playoff picture through Week 15 (odds via Next Gen Stats):
(x-Clinched playoff berth)
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}AFC
x-1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
They won the game, but all of their concern right now is with QB Patrick Mahomes, who is "day to day" with an ankle injury, according to Chiefs coach Andy Reid. He suffered it late in their 21-7 win over the Cleveland Browns. And while it doesn't sound like it's serious, it's reportedly a high ankle sprain, which is rarely a one-week injury. The good news is the Chiefs have built a nice cushion with a two-game lead over the Bills in the race for home-field advantage. So there's no reason for anyone to worry … yet.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 100%
x-2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
After their wild and heart-breaking loss to the Los Angeles Rams a week ago, they managed to not blow it this time, holding on for a wild, 48-42 win in Detroit. Beating the Lions in their house isn't easy, so it's almost forgivable the Bills nearly blew the 35-14 lead they had late in the third quarter. If nothing else, the last two games have opened up a lot of questions about their defense and their ability to close out games.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 100%
x-3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
They clinched a playoff berth, but they didn't look particularly good doing it as they were bullied by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Battle of Pennsylvania. It wasn't just that they gave up 290 yards to Eagles QB Jalen Hurts or 401 yards overall. It was how they sat helplessly on the sidelines as the Eagles ate up the final 10:29 of the clock with the Steelers' defense unable to get off the field. Oh, and their stud defender, T.J. Watt, hurt his ankle late in the game, too. And now they have a short week to get ready to face the Ravens in a game where they'll try to hold onto their lead in the NFC North.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 100%
x-4. Houston Texans (9-5)
They won their second straight game on Sunday and clinched a playoff berth when the Indianapolis Colts lost. But the way they're playing sure isn't building any confidence that they're capable of a playoff run. They won with just 181 yards of offense, which against most teams isn't going to get it done at all. They did force four Miami Dolphins turnovers, which is probably what bailed them out. But there's no doubt they're struggling despite winning three of their last four. And now they head to Kansas City and then back home to face the Ravens, so a lot more can still go wrong.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 100%
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
They did what they had to do and flexed their muscles on the road against an awful New York Giants team. It was a nice easy way to come out of the bye week and shake off the fact that they lost two of their last three games. Things get tougher next weekend when they return home on a short week for a Saturday game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat them in Pittsburgh last month. They're going to make the playoffs, but after seeing what happened with the Steelers on Sunday, they've got to be eyeing the division title and a home game, too.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 99%
6. Denver Broncos (9-5)
Once again, things aren't easy for the Denver Broncos. They managed just 193 yards of offense against the Indianapolis Colts and rookie quarterback Bo Nix uncharacteristically threw three interceptions. But he also threw two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter as they came from behind to win. They've won four straight now and six of their last eight, and have a two-game lead in the playoff race with three games to go. It's really not clear how they're doing it, but they keep finding ways to win and might be tough to beat when the postseason starts.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 91%
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Their defense, which had given up fewer points than any team in the NFL, got absolutely rolled by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 40 points, 506 yards and four touchdowns from Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. They've now lost three of their last four, although those three losses have come against the Ravens, Chiefs and Bucs. It was the defensive performance, though, that made this one concerning. Good thing for them, they still have the Patriots and Raiders on their schedule, because their lead in the playoff chase is now down to one.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Playoff probability: 87%
On the outside looking in: The Indianapolis Colts (6-8) blew their big chance at staying in this race by blowing a late lead to the turnover-happy Denver Broncos. They're now 2-5 in their last seven games, and while their remaining schedule is pretty easy, they probably need too much help. … The Miami Dolphins (6-8) held the Texans to just 181 yards, but somehow had only 224 of their own and lost. They've now lost two of three to just about crush their remaining hopes, too. … The Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) weren't even on this list until the Colts and Dolphins fell back toward them. But they beat the Titans and have a red-hot offense, so who knows?
NFC
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}x-1. Detroit Lions (12-2)
The NFC was theirs for the taking, but their defense fell apart on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. And while they did mount a wild comeback to pull within 48-42, it still goes down as a troubling loss. Their biggest problem now is that the Eagles are red-hot and right on their heels in the race for the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Oh, and so are the Minnesota Vikings, whom they still have to play in Detroit in the final game of the regular season.
Playoff probability: 100%
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}x-2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
They have now won 10 straight games and their 27-13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday was a work of art. They revived their passing game as Jalen Hurts threw for 290 yards and they pushed around a top-10 defense to the tune of 401 total yards. They also showed their bullying nature, holding the ball for the final 10:29 of the game — an absolute clinic on how to grind an opponent into submission and put a game away. They play at Washington next week then return home for games against the Cowboys and Giants. Those might turn out to be three easy wins.
Playoff probability: 100%
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}x-5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
They clinched without doing a thing on Sunday night and then celebrated Monday night with a victory over the Chicago Bears. It wasn’t their prettiest win, but it was their seventh straight and left them in a virtual tie atop the NFC North with the Lions and the entire NFC with the Lions and the Eagles. Winning either won’t be easy because they play at Seattle next, then home to Green Bay, before finishing up the regular season at Detroit. But at this point, the NFL’s biggest surprises certainly can’t be counted out.
Playoff probability: 100%
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
What Baker Mayfield and the Bucs did to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday wasn't just a clinic — it was also a warning to the rest of the NFL. The Chargers have a legitimately good defense, yet the Bucs shredded them for 40 points and 506 yards. Mayfield threw for 288 yards and four touchdowns. They've won four straight games since their bye week and they are clicking on all cylinders. Even better, they finish out the season with games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Saints, so they have a chance to roll into the postseason.
Playoff probability: 88%
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6) It felt like only a matter of time before the red-hot Rams would take over the top spot in the NFC West. And it happened when the Seahawks lost to the Packers on Sunday night. The Rams did their part on Thursday night, four days after beating the Bills in a shootout, when they followed that with a win over the 49ers in a rain-soaked slog of a game. That proved they can win playing any style of football. They've won three straight now, four of five, and seven of nine since the bye week. And now they control their own destiny.
Playoff probability: 53%
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Their win in Seattle on Sunday night was their fourth in five games since their bye week, with their only misstep coming against the conference-leading Detroit Lions. They're not going to win the division — not with two teams to jump over and two games to make up in the last three weeks — but they have proven that when Jordan Love is healthy they can be a dangerous team to face in the playoffs. Two of their last three games are against the Saints and Bears, so they've got a chance to keep rolling. They can test themselves again in Week 17, too, at Minnesota.
Playoff probability: 99%
7. Washington Commanders (9-5)
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}What an incredible near-disaster for the Commanders down in New Orleans. It took a failed two-point conversion with no time left for them to hold off a bad Saints team that started Jake Haener at quarterback and then benched him for Spencer Rattler. They'll need to get better at putting teams away once they get to the postseason. It certainly won't be easy to do that next Sunday when they play host to the Philadelphia Eagles, who will be able to lock up the NFC East. But it will be a good test for this young team to see if they're really ready for their unexpected success.
Playoff probability: 83%
On the outside looking in: The Seattle Seahawks (8-6) picked a terrible time for their offense to be a no-show in an ugly loss to the Green Bay Packers. That stopped their four-game winning streak and gave control of the division to the Rams. … The Atlanta Falcons (7-7) finally stopped their ugly, four-game losing streak with a win over the awful Raiders. They’ve got some work to do to get back into playoff position, but the good news is that two of their last three games are at home against the Giants and Panthers. … Boy did the Arizona Cardinals (7-7) need their big win over the Patriots, which stopped their three-game slide. They've got a game in Carolina next Sunday, and need that to keep them in the race for their Week 17 game in Los Angeles against the Rams.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.