Ranking NFL head coaches on the hot seat

[Editor's note: This story has been updated following the news of the Saints firing head coach Dennis Allen after Week 9.]

In the three weeks since the New York Jets fired Robert Saleh they've gone 0-3, and in many ways look even worse than they did before. That proves two very important things:

Saleh wasn't the Jets' problem.

And in-season coaching changes almost never work.

Of course, evidence isn't necessarily something that will stop NFL owners looking for a quick fix. And to be fair, sometimes an in-season change is necessary to avert a complete and embarrassing disaster. Sometimes it's even just a way for an embattled owner to throw fresh meat to his angry fans.

That’s why the New Orleans Saints just followed the Jets lead and fired their head coach on Monday morning. And it’s why seats remain hot under several other coaches all around the NFL. Some of them could be gone within weeks. Others will surely be gone after their miserable season is over.

Here is the FOX Sports' bi-weekly ranking of the seven hottest coaching seats in the league, heading into Week 9:

1. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints (Previous ranking: 2nd)

The woeful franchise made it official on Monday morning when they leaked word that Dennis Allen was out. And it was hardly surprising since the Saints were in an irreversible freefall. Their 23-22 loss to the awful Carolina Panthers on Sunday was their seventh straight after a promising, 2-0 start.

Allen finished his Saints career with an indefensible record of 18-25. And if you add in his three awful seasons as head coach of the Oakland Raiders from 2012-14, his head coaching career is surely over with an unseemly record of 26-53.

Darren Rizzi, the Saints’ assistant head coach and special teams coordinator, is expected to take over for the remainder of the season, though barring a shocking, second-half turnaround the former University of Rhode Island head coach (2008) is unlikely to get the job permanently. The Saints are going to have to start over next season with a new coach and quarterback.

The question now — a big one for Mickey Loomis — is are they going to start over with a new GM, too?

Dennis Allen and the Saints have lost six straight games heading into Week 9. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

2. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous ranking: 1st)

His job was very likely saved with a 32-16 win over the awful New England Patriots in London two weeks ago. There were a lot of indications that a loss would've resulted in him being fired before the team plane landed back in Florida.

His cause was also helped on Sunday by a narrow loss to the Green Bay Packers, which only goes to show how low the standards have gotten in Jacksonville. But the numbers count. They are now 2-2 in their last four and franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence finally showed signs of life on Sunday. Positive vibes could keep the reactionary instincts of Jags owner Shahid Khan at bay.

But only for so long. The Jaguars remain one of the biggest underachievers in the NFL and they are 3-11 since they entered last December with an 8-3 record. Plus, the Jags play at Philadelphia (5-2), home against the Vikings (5-2) and at Detroit (6-2) over the next three weeks, which could set the stage for Pederson to be fired one week later, during their bye.

Doug Pederson and the Jaguars sit at 2-6 on the season (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

3. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (Previous ranking: 3rd)

Yeah, Jerry Jones swears he's not firing Mike McCarthy, and given his painful patience with previous coaches there's no reason not to believe him.

But he's got to have a breaking point, right?

The Cowboys lost again Sunday night in San Francisco in a game that wasn't close until a garbage-time comeback. In fact, if you take away garbage time, they haven't been competitive in any of their four losses. They're also 0-3 at home, which has to sting, and they're already 2.5 games back in the NFC East race. Oh, and their defense has given up 77 points in the last two games.

That last part is really McCarthy's in-season security blanket, since his most likely interim replacement would be defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, and right now even Jones couldn't sell that to players or fans. Don't forget, though, that McCarthy is only signed through the end of the season. Jones doesn't like firing coaches, but if this season gets much worse even he'll see he won't have much of a choice.

Is Mike McCarthy's seat getting warmer following a loss to the 49ers? (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

4. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (Previous ranking: NR)

The decision not to give Eberflus a contract extension in the offseason spoke volumes about ownership's uncertainty about him. It also says something about their lack of a plan. The smart move, as they were about to draft a new franchise quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick, would be to commit to a coach to help develop Caleb Williams for the first few years of his career.

Eberflus is still signed through 2025, but he could be on shaky ground if Williams doesn't have the kind of rookie season everyone is expecting. There have been a lot of positive signs, but he's been very up and down. Two strong weeks collapsed in an awful effort by him against Washington on Sunday in a showdown against No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels.

Eberflus also didn't help himself with some odd coaching decisions (A handoff to an offensive lineman on 4th-and-goal from the 1 while trailing in the fourth quarter?). And it was a real bad look that one of his players was too busy trash-talking fans to defend the Hail Mary play that lost them the game. Stuff like that is hard to forget.

Will being on the losing end of a Hail Mary lead to Matt Eberflus' demise in Chicago? (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

5. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (Previous ranking: NR)

The Raiders were right to take the interim tag off him after the Raiders' strong 5-4 finish last year and the way all his players endorsed him. He seemed to have given the franchise a much-needed jolt of energy.

But good vibes don't last forever, especially when you don't have a franchise quarterback and your best receiver basically forced a trade. Right now, Pierce is struggling to hold things together with the Raiders riding a four-game losing streak. They've been competitive the last two weeks in close losses to the Rams and Chiefs, but how long will close be enough?

They've got a new minority owner in Tom Brady, who almost certainly will have some thoughts to share with majority owner Marc Davis. And they're heading towards their fourth non-winning season in five years in Las Vegas, which isn't good.

There's a bye looming in two weeks, though Pierce likely will survive that. But if he can't recapture the good vibes — and a few wins along the way — the Raiders may end up starting over in 2025 with a new quarterback and a new head coach.

Antonio Pierce and the Raiders are 2-6 on the season. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals (Previous ranking: 5th)

Their 37-17 loss at home to the Eagles on Sunday shows how far this team has fallen. They should be much closer to contender status with some of the talent they have. But they keep getting farther away.

He's still very unlikely to be fired in-season for a bunch of reasons. One is that the Bengals are notably cheap and they don't want to eat the $4.5 million per year he's making through 2026. The other is that they are 3-2 over their last five and one of those losses was in overtime to the Baltimore Ravens.

But — and this is a bad "but" — in their last three games, this offense has averaged 18.3 points and 269 yards. That's inexcusable for a team with Joe Burrow at quarterback and a receiver like Ja'Marr Chase. At some point, the Bengals will have to realize they can't waste the prime of those two players.

Will the Bengals need a late-season run to save Zac Taylor's job? (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

7. Brian Daboll, New York Giants (Previous ranking: 4th)

Why is he still on this list after co-owner John Mara promised that he and general manager Joe Schoen would be back in 2025? Mostly because what Mara actually said was that he won't make any in-season changes and "I do not anticipate making any changes in the offseason."

The phrasing of these votes of confidence is always key.

Mara's not lying or playing games. But he also knows that things can fall apart late to an embarrassing degree (just ask Joe Judge), and sometimes things happen that he just can't accept (ask Ben McAdoo). So yeah, there's a little wiggle room in his promise.

But it really would take something drastic to change his mind, according to sources inside the organization. Maybe if they don't win another game, or players start revolting, or Daboll's press conferences just go off the rails — something like that. His team is feisty, though, so the odds are good he's not going anywhere. But stranger things have happened to this organization in the last 13 years.

Is there enough time for Brian Daboll and the Giants to get on track in 2024? (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Dropped from the list:

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (Previous ranking: 7th) — A big win over the Baltimore Ravens showed he can still coach, especially when he has a quarterback. Deshaun Watson being out for the season will only help his cause.

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles (Previous ranking: 6th) — The Eagles are 5-2 now after three straight wins and their offense is clicking for the first time, really, since the 2022 season. But a playoff run may still be needed to save him.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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