College football Week 15 preview: Picking conference championship game winners

Welcome to college football's conference championship weekend.

The upcoming week is loaded with notable matchups, and it all gets underway Friday night when No. 10 Boise State hosts No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game. Kickoff for that matchup is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

The Power 4 conferences take center stage on Saturday as Iowa State takes on Arizona State in the Big 12 title game, Georgia battles Texas in the SEC championship, Penn State goes up against top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten title game, and Clemson closes out the night against SMU in the ACC title matchup.

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, RJ Young and Michael Cohen are here to answer the biggest questions heading into conference championship weekend:

Big Ten Championship Game: Oregon vs. Penn State – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

Laken Litman: Oregon. 

The top-ranked Ducks have been the most consistent and most dominant team in the country for the majority of the season. After a slow start to the year, Dan Lanning got his team, made up of a chunk of transfers, into a rhythm. Oregon is led by QB Dillon Gabriel, a likely Heisman Trophy finalist, who is creeping closer to breaking college football's all-time leading passing mark (former Houston quarterback Case Keenum currently holds the record with 19,217 yards, and Gabriel enters the weekend with 18,140 in six years).

Penn State has a top-notch defense and could easily also be undefeated if not for a close loss to Ohio State on Nov. 2. But the Nittany Lions have not won a conference title since 2016 (when Saquon Barkley was on the team) and have a history of falling short in big games.

RJ Young: No one has beaten Oregon, including an Ohio State team that still feels like one talented enough to win the national title. Add to this Penn State’s history against top five-ranked teams in the James Franklin era, and that task feels beyond the Nittany Lions.

The Ducks are one of the most balanced teams in the country with an offense that can score and a defense that can play like one of the best in the country. At Lucas Oil, if the Ducks travel well, it should sound like Autzen — an environment where Oregon is mostly unbeatable.

Michael Cohen: There's little doubt that head coach James Franklin's decision to hire Andy Kotelnicki as offensive coordinator paid dividends for the Nittany Lions this season. Penn State improved its passing offense from a tie for 79th nationally in 2023 (215 yards per game) to 40th nationally in 2024 (248.2 yards per game) and upped its rushing offense from 29th overall (184.6 yards per game) to 25th overall (194.7 yards per game) while converting nearly 7% more often on third down. But there remains a large discrepancy between what Penn State's offense can do against middling or low-level opposition and what it can do when facing some of the better defenses in the Big Ten. Kotelnicki's unit only averaged 335 yards per game against Illinois, Ohio State and Minnesota, which is more than 100 yards per game below the team's season average. 

How the Nittany Lions will fare against an Oregon defensive unit that ranks among the top 10 nationally in both scoring (16.2 points per game) and total defense (283.8 yards per game) remains to be seen, but the Ducks have enough NFL-caliber personnel up front to disrupt the line of scrimmage. Edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (10.5 sacks) and defensive end Jordan Burch (8.5 sacks) are both premier players at their positions. Oregon has been the best team in the league all season and will hoist the trophy Saturday night. 

Big 12 Championship Game: Iowa State vs. Arizona State – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

RJ: Iowa State is in the midst of a golden era with its first win in a major bowl coming in 2020 and its first 10-win season this year — all thanks to Matt Campbell. While they're certainly a team on the rise, Kenny Dillingham has performed the most impressive flip in the country. His Sun Devils are 10-2 after finishing 3-9 last year. 

This game will be about Cam Skattebo, one of the best tailbacks in the country. If he goes off, the Sun Devils will win their first Big 12 championship and punch their ticket to the CFP for the first time.

Michael: Is there any team in the country with more momentum than Arizona State right now? Picked to finish 16th out of 16 teams in the Big 12 preseason poll, the Sun Devils have obliterated their expectations to finish the regular season 10-2 overall and 7-2 in the league under second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham, who won't turn 35 until April. Dillingham's team reeled off five straight wins to end the regular season and emerge from a logjam in the conference standings to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Arizona State upended two ranked teams during that stretch in No. 16 Kansas State (away) and No. 14 BYU (home) while outsourcing its opponents 178-96 overall. Tailback Cam Skattebo, who ranks eighth nationally in rushing with 1,398 yards and tied for ninth in rushing touchdowns with 17, is among the best players in the country that the average fan might not know. And a turnover margin of plus-11 is tied for the fifth-best total among schools from the Power 4 conferences. The Sun Devils should keep things rolling and qualify for the College Football Playoff. 

Laken: Arizona State. 

The Sun Devils are on a roll, winning their last five games, including two vs. ranked opponents (then-No. 16 Kansas State on Nov. 16 followed by then-No. 14 BYU on Nov. 23). The work 34-year-old head coach Kenny Dillingham has done this season probably hasn't been talked about enough. He went 3-9 in his debut season in 2023 with one of the worst offenses in the country. 

Now, the Sun Devils are 10-2 and about to play in the Big 12 championship, their first season in the conference. With a win, they'll clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.  The offense has made massive strides, too, especially with transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cam Skattebo leading the way.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Texas: Who is your pick to win this game and why?

Michael: It's difficult to quantify the physical and emotional toll that last week's eight-overtime classic between Georgia and Georgia Tech might have taken on the Bulldogs, who barely survived a season-altering upset to an unranked opponent. Not only did the game span four hours and 18 minutes of real time — beginning at 7:44 p.m. and ending shortly after midnight on Sunday — but it included more than 150 plays from scrimmage and at least two dozen more on special teams. For reference, Georgia's penultimate game of the regular season against UMass only featured 129 plays from scrimmage, while last week's slugfest in the Big Ten between Ohio State and Michigan included just 117 plays from scrimmage. That's a lot of extra punishment the Georgia bodies must recover from ahead of kickoff against Texas on Saturday afternoon. 

One advantage the Bulldogs do have, though, is the knowledge that they barnstormed the Longhorns during an initial meeting earlier this year. Head coach Kirby Smart's team raced to a 23-0 lead in a difficult road environment at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Oct. 19 and cruised to a 15-point win that still ranks among the best victories of the season for any team in the country. Georgia's defense trashed the Texas offensive line to the tune of seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss while also generating three fumbles and one interception.

It seems unlikely that the Bulldogs will perform quite that well this time around. Texas gets its revenge. 

Laken: Texas.

The Longhorns defense was on another level against Texas A&M last Saturday. The unit didn't allow an offensive score and had a game-sealing goal line stand late in the fourth quarter. Running back Quintrevion Wisner carried the offense, rushing for 186 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Georgia is coming off an emotional eight-overtime win over Georgia Tech. Kirby Smart praised Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King after he passed for 308 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 110 yards with three rushing scores. Speaking of quarterbacks, that's where this game could get interesting. Quinn Ewers and Carson Beck both started the season as Heisman favorites, but that projection faded away months ago. Their inconsistencies have been an issue all year, but right now, Texas is looking like the more well-rounded team.

RJ: Texas feels like 2021 Georgia — brilliant on defense and capable enough offensively to go for 40. But the Longhorns don't have to. The hallmark of this Texas team has been running the ball and sitting on an opponent's chest to run out the clock. If Carson Beck doesn't play like a Heisman winner, Texas wins by double digits. I like Texas.

ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. SMU – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

Laken: SMU.

The Mustangs have left no doubt in their ACC debut season. They enter the conference championship game with only one early-season loss to BYU and most of their wins have been by multiple possessions – only three were by seven points or less. SMU's offense is led by the young and dynamic Kevin Jennings. The sophomore QB, who didn't earn his starting spot until September, is completing more than 66% of his passes and averaging 9.6 yards per attempt. Thirteen of his 19 total touchdowns this season have come in the past six games. The Ponies have a sneaky good defense too, ranked fourth nationally in run defense (95.83 ypg with only 10 touchdowns) and No. 19 in scoring defense (19.8 ppg).

Clemson comes into this showdown off a close loss to rival South Carolina and wouldn't even be in this position had Miami not lost to Syracuse. The 9-3 Tigers may have more talent than the Mustangs do on paper, but Rhett Lashlee's team doesn't want its Cinderella season to end.

RJ: Clemson has won every single time it has made the ACC title game in the CFP era. While SMU is 9-0 with Kevin Jennings at QB, I like the Tigers to understand the moment, the environment, and be prepared for the unique setting. Plus, Clemson has more of an incentive to win. With a loss, SMU might make the CFP field. But a win is the only way Clemson gets in. I like Clemson.

Michael: For as incredible as SMU's season has been thus far — 11-1 overall, 8-0 in the ACC as a debut member, outsourcing opponents 470-237 overall — there might come a time when the talent discrepancy is too much for the Mustangs to overcome. Shrewd transfer portal additions, gobs of NIL money and astute coaching have allowed Rhett Lashlee's team to punch above its weight for much of the season, especially considering SMU was picked to finish seventh in the league's preseason poll behind Florida State, Clemson, Miami, NC State, Louisville and Virginia Tech. But it's quite possible that a matchup with Clemson, whom the Mustangs did not face in the regular season, might be a bridge too far — even in a season when head coach Dabo Swinney's group needed help from Syracuse, which upset Miami last weekend, just to reach the ACC Championship Game. 

Despite a 9-3 record that includes losses to then-No. 1 Georgia, Louisville and then-No. 15 South Carolina, the Tigers still rank fifth nationally in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite that examines the depth of a roster based on high school recruiting rankings. The only teams that rank higher are Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Texas. Swinney's group includes seven former five-star recruits and 45 former four-star recruits. Those numbers are a far cry from what SMU, which has one former five-star prospect and 24 former four-star prospects, will bring to Saturday's game. The Mustangs rank 25th in the Team Talent Composite, and that seems like too large of a gulf to offset. 

Clemson is the pick. 

Mountain West Championship Game: UNLV vs. Boise State – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

RJ: Boise State won this game the first time this year with Ashton Jeanty having a piss-poor day by his standards. If Jeanty totes the rock as much as I think he will, BSU will win with this game taking place on the blue turf and Jeanty needing just 341 yards to eclipse Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing mark.

Michael: What a huge advantage this is for Boise State to host the Mountain West Championship game at its open-air stadium in Idaho. The weather on Friday night calls for daytime temperatures in the low 40s and an overnight low of 26 degrees with light winds. And while that forecast is far more favorable than it could have been at this time of the year — especially in the Pacific Northwest — asking an indoor team from Las Vegas to play in near-freezing temperatures is far from an easy task. But the Broncos navigated their Mountain West slate unscathed, including an October win at UNLV, which earned them the right to host the league's title game with a berth in the College Football Playoff at stake. And that means star tailback Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation in both rushing yards (2,288) and rushing touchdowns (28), has his biggest stage of the season to impress Heisman Trophy voters on a weekend when his biggest competitor — Colorado wide receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter — won't be playing. Jeanty has rushed for at least 127 yards in every game this season and won't be stopped when his team needs him the most. Boise State's magical run continues. 

Laken: Boise State.

It's a big week for the Broncos, and also for running back Ashton Jeanty, who has one more game before Heisman ballots are cast. Jeanty has been far and away the most prolific runner all year. He's only 341 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record, and he should be able to do it considering he averages 190.67 ypg. 

However, the Mountain West title game could be a bit tricky. UNLV has a top 10 run defense and the last time these teams met on Oct. 25, Jeanty was held to 128 yards – his second-lowest output of the year. Boise State won that game, 29-24, and Jeanty also scored a touchdown. With so much on the line this weekend – a CFP auto-bid and a first-round bye – Jeanty will be determined to win that battle on the ground.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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