Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's college football study guide: Conference championship edition

This past weekend was another electric day in college football. 

Michigan took down Ohio State for the fourth consecutive year despite being 19.5-pont favorites, it took Georgia eight overtimes to take down Georgia Tech in a shootout, No. 8 Miami fell to unranked Syracuse in a barn-burner, and Clemson fell to South Carolina in a matchup with several CFP implications. 

With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what's notable for the upcoming week.     

I've decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football. 

This week, it's conference championship weekend. Only 18 teams earned a spot to play an extra game, and only one edition of the CFP rankings remains. Undoubtedly, these games will have massive implications on which teams get in, which teams get left out, and which programs get favorable paths to the national title. 

Let's dive into my thoughts for this weekend.

Mountain West rematch

What we all were waiting for has happened— UNLV will get a shot at revenge when they take on Boise State in the Mountain West title game on Friday. Remember, the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champ is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team playoff field, making this game even more exciting. In the most recent rankings, the Broncos slotted in at No. 10 and the Rebels at No. 20. Boise State has won each of the last eight meetings in the series, with the last UNLV win coming in 1976. 

In their regular season meeting, the Rebels really hurt themselves with a bad turnover before half and two penalties on third down on Boise’s final drive, where they would have gotten the Broncos off the field. I expect this to be a close one, as this game pits the top scoring offense in the Mountain West (Boise State: 40.6 points per game) against the top scoring defense in the Mountain West (UNLV: Allowing 22.0 PPG).

Let's also not forget that Ashton Jeanty is also going to do everything he can to make his Heisman case. He is 341 rushing yards away from breaking the FBS single-season record held by Barry Sanders. I don't see him beating out Travis Hunter, but regardless, how he performs will be something to make note of.

Another rematch, SEC edition

Probably the most exciting matchup of the weekend will come between these two teams, as Texas will look to avenge their lone loss of the season against Georgia. It's pretty remarkable that they're in the SEC title game in their first year in the conference, but beating the Bulldogs will be a true sign of their dominance. In that regular season matchup, Kirby Smart's bunch dominated the line of scrimmage, with the offensive line paving the way for Trevor Etienne. He scored three touchdowns and averaged 4.6 yards per carry in the 30-15 win in Austin. Will things be different this time around in what is practically a home game for Georgia?

I'm sure Texas will be well represented— but let's be real, the game is in Atlanta. Six SEC teams won nine games, and Texas only faced one: Georgia. That first meeting was just strange. The teams combined for seven turnovers, the Longhorns started four drives inside their own 15-yard line, Quinn Ewers was benched for Arch Manning and of course there was a controversial penalty reversal after fans littered the field with trash. 

There's no denying how impressive the Longhorns defense has been though, as they rank first in the country in defensive efficiency, first in pass defense, second in scoring defense, and sixth in third-down defense.

Side note— how are we handling South Carolina? Especially when considering the loss to LSU, where they blew a big lead, got a questionable officiating decision thrown their way, and didn't have LaNorris Sellers for the second half. And sure, they got rolled at home by Ole Miss, but if you're asking who the seven best at-large teams are right now— many people would put South Carolina in there.

Let's talk about the Ponies

SMU's ranking at No. 8 doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. They're ahead of Alabama in the CFP rankings, so aren't you essentially saying they are in right now? Why would a loss in what is pretty much a road game cause them to fall behind the Tide? If you don't think they are better than the Mustangs now, it's not like they can do anything this week to improve their stature. So if SMU loses and falls behind them, then that's just wrong in my opinion. Just be up front with the Ponies right now. Put them at 12 or wherever. Just tell them, "you have to win or else you're out." 

All conferences aren't equal, but penalizing a team for losing a conference title game which it qualified for, and then "rewarding" or "elevating" a team which didn't make its conference title game seems unfair to me. If Alabama is better than SMU— and they just might be— that's fine. The Mustangs have played three ACC teams that are 2-6 or worse in conference play, and have played five that are 3-5 or worse. They have zero ranked wins and have the 75th rated strength of schedule. 

But my point is that the committee should factor that in now instead of after a potential loss to Clemson. The carpet shouldn't be pulled from under for Rhett Lashlee and his team if they lose a road game against a more-than-solid team, when they are three spots ahead of the Tide.

Ok, my rant is over.

Big Ten

Here comes another chance for James Franklin to get a top five or top 10 win. In my opinion, if Penn State were to lose— it just furthers the perception that the Nittany Lions are not a serious title contender. During his time in Happy Valley, Franklin is 1-13 against AP top five opponents, and 3-18 vs AP top 10 foes. Oregon's strength of record is the best in the country, and are also the only FBS team in the nation without a loss. This will be an uphill battle for Penn State.

On a side note, and what I'm about to say is going to sound crazy— but hear me out. In a strange way, did the loss to Michigan help Ohio State? They are now off until the 19th or 20th. They don't have to play this week, and they likely know the strength of their team is getting the ball to their wide receivers. The stress factor of trying to beat Michigan isn't there anymore. Who knows who their game will be against, but it will likely be a home game followed by either warm weather or indoor settings. It could be one of those "you know what, screw it" moments for Ryan Day and Chip Kelly. What’s left to lose at this point? 

I'm also curious where Indiana falls in the final rankings. They've faced one of the five other Big Ten teams that won eight games, and lost 38-15 in that matchup (against the Buckeyes)— only totaling 151 yards.

Sun Devils continue to roll

I've said it several times this year and I'll say it again. There might not be a better story in all of college football than Arizona State. They were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll and are now one win away from being conference champions. It's the first time since 2004 that they've gone undefeated at home, and the seven-win improvement from last year is the largest turnaround in program history. Kenny Dillingham could easily win the Bear Bryant Award, and he'd deserve it if he does. Right now, all Power 4 conference title games have a spread that sits under four points. In the last six years, there have been a total of three such games in those four leagues. Since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, there have been a total of 18 across Power 4. There is unparalleled parity at the top of these conferences, and the Big 12 title game between ASU and Iowa State is the epitome of this.  

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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