Walz doesn't move needle with rural voters, data shows

close

Video

Veteran accuses Walz of embellishing military career, dodging deployment

Minnesota National Guard Command Sgt. Maj. Paul Herr (Ret.) joins 'Fox & Friends' to explain the letter he wrote in 2018 against Tim Walz, saying the VP candidate 'failed' his country, state and fellow soldiers.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ decision to tap Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate may not help the Democratic ticket capture rural voters.

A Fox News Voter Analysis of the 2020 and 2022 elections shows that Walz performs similarly to President Biden among highly sought after rural voters, with Biden earning the votes of 38% of that demographic in Minnesota in the 2020 presidential election, while Walz hauled in 37% of those voters during his successful 2022 bid for re-election.

Democrats will look to improve upon those numbers, with Harris and Walz hitting the ground running in the days after the Minnesota governor was added to the ticket, setting up events in crucial Midwestern swing states and looking to sell the electorate on Walz’s blue-collar bona fides. 

WHERE DOES TIM WALZ STAND ON ISRAEL?

Gov. Tim Walz speaks before President Biden at Dutch Creek Farms, Nov. 1, 2023, in Northfield, Minnesota. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

The campaign has made it a point to highlight his Midwestern roots and everyman persona, introducing him as "Coach Walz" during rallies in a nod to his time as a teacher and high school football coach.

Harris will lean on Walz in the critical Midwestern swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, where the Minnesota governor can point to his regional ties.

"Hello, Eau Claire. Isn't it good to have a candidate who can pronounce the name," Walz said during a rally in rural Wisconsin on Wednesday.

Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, arrive at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

WALZ WAITED UNTIL LEGISLATIVE SESSION WRAPPED TO DEMAND RESIGNATION FROM DEM LAWMAKER ACCUSED OF BURGLARY

But whether the Minnesota governor can help capture groups Democrats have struggled with remains a question, with the Fox News voter analysis showing that Walz also performed similarly to Biden among White voters without a college degree. During Biden’s White House bid in 2020, the president captured 45% of such voters in Minnesota, while Walz hauled in 44% during his 2022 re-election campaign in the same state.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz wave during their rally in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Nevertheless, Biden's 2020 performance was enough to put him over the top in all the so-called "Blue Wall" states, with the president carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in addition to his victory in Minnesota, a feat the Harris campaign will be looking to repeat in 2024.

CLICK TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Fox News’ voter analysis was conducted in partnership with The Associated Press and captures a picture of the American electorate as they vote. The analysis overcomes the shortcomings of traditional exit polling by tapping surveys conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago and voting results from The Associated Press, capturing the entire electorate, including early voters and those who voted by mail.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.

Get the latest updates on the ongoing border crisis from the Fox News Digital immigration hub.