User’s manual on what House races to watch on Election Night

It’s pretty clear which states to watch to know whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate. Contests in Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are all battlegrounds. But it’s a different story to understanding which might control the House.

The path to power isn’t direct in the House.

A patchwork of districts – hopscotching from northern Maine to the tundra of Alaska – might decide the House majority.

So on election night, let me decode the signs to interpret which party may serve in the House majority in 2025.

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It’s about the math.

Let’s begin with the current breakdown in the House.

There are presently 432 House members. 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. There are three vacancies.

Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., and Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., died. Former Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., resigned. None of these are swing districts. So, if the House were at full membership with 435 seats, the breakdown would be 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats. The margin is seven. But Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to capture control. Also, note that some districts have morphed – especially in North Carolina – due to redistricting. In fact, Republicans could gain several seats there alone.

So here’s the charge for Democrats: hold seats they currently have – and pluck off a handful of seats as they skip around the map. Also, make up the difference from what they will likely lose in the Tar Heel State. This is not a comprehensive list. But it will provide a general feel for the evening. 

Here’s an early race to watch which could give a you a clue as to the direction of the House: Maine’s 2nd District.

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, faces Republican challenger and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault. This is a massive, rugged, rural district which stretches north to the Canadian border. Golden is one of the most moderate – and vulnerable Democrats in the House. Former President Trump won the singular electoral vote by carrying this district in 2020. Maine employs a proportional system to divide its electoral votes.

If Golden holds this seat, that could serve as an early canary in the coal mine indicating that Democrats are in good shape. But if Theriault prevails, that might signal the House could drift the other direction.

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Political analysts believe that Democrats lost the House in New York in 2022. That’s ironic because the former chairman of the Democrats reelection efforts two years ago, former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y., hailed from New York. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is from Brooklyn. That’s to say nothing of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Empire State Democrats have an opportunity to make significant inroads if they perform well in House races this year. The fact that it’s a presidential election could also bolster Democratic performance in New York. Democrats already won back the seat occupied by former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., - who was expelled. But Democrats are angling to defeat freshman Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., and Nick LaLota, R-N.Y. A clean sweep in the early returns sends a message that Democrats are performing substantially well on the evening of November 5. Democrats will be disappointed if they don’t capture at least three of these seats.

Virginia is also a place where both parties have pickup opportunities. A sweep by either side could reveal the overall direction of the night.

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., faces Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal in the Tidewater area. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., is retiring to run for governor next year. Democrat Eugene Vindman faces Republican Derrick Anderson to succeed Spanberger. The parties could split these races, making Virginia a wash.

Veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio and freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes, D-Ohio, are both defending battleground districts in a state which should go overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump. The fact that Republican Vice Presidential nominee and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, hails from the Buckeye State could influence voter turnout. It’s a boon if Republicans are able to topple either Kaptur or Sykes. And Republicans could be looking at a grand slam if both Democrats lose. However, Kaptur is the longest-tenured woman in House history. Republicans have been trying to defeat her for years. It’s far from clear that they can do so this year. 

Democrats also have a shot at winning a redrawn seat in Alabama. A federal court decided that Alabama violated the Voting Rights Act by packing Black voters into a single majority Black district. The court ruled that Alabama must retool its Congressional maps, making what was once a Republican district into one favoring Democrats. Shomari Figures hopes to capture that district for the Democrats.

In Iowa, Democrats are eyeing two seats – although winning either may be a stretch. One seat pits Democrat Lanon Baccam against Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa. Democrats also hope Christina Bohannan can unseat sophomore Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa. Miller-Meeks squeaked out a victory in 2020 by just six votes. But Miller-Meeks won by seven points in 2022. Democrats would be fortunate to knock off either Nunn or Miller-Meeks. But they definitely believe Bohannan has a bona fide shot at toppling Miller-Meeks.

In Colorado, Rep. Yadira Caraveo D-Colo., won her first term by about 2,000 votes. She’s up against Republican challenger Gabe Evans. But it’s believed a strong showing at the top of the ticket in blue Colorado could help Caraveo.

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In New Mexico, Freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M. is in a rematch with former Rep. Yvette Harrell, R-N.M. This district is one of the swingiest in the country and bears watching. Former Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, D-N.M., flipped this district in 2018 after former Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., ran for governor. Harrell then defeated Torres Small in 2020. However, Vasquez flipped the district back to the Democrats in 2022. Harrell hopes to return the favor this fall.

Besides New York, California is where Democrats also hope to make up significant ground. It doesn’t hurt that the Democratic nominee for President used to represent the Golden State in the Senate and served as its attorney general. Moreover, a Senate race could boost Democratic turnout. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., is running against former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres star Steve Garvey.

Democrats hope to unseat Reps. John Duarte, R-Calif., David Valadao, R-Calif., Mike Garcia, R-Calif., Ken Calvert, R-Calif., and Michelle Steel, R-Calif. They each represent battleground districts. Duarte won his race in an upset last cycle by fewer than 600 votes. Democrats unseated Valadao in 2018. But he returned to Congress in 2020.

Also, three other races could indicate whether it’s a Democratic or Republican night.

In Oregon, Freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer, R-Ore., runs against Democrat Janelle Bynum. Bynum has defeated Chavez-Deremer in previous contests for the statehouse. If Chavez-Deremer holds on, that could flash as a positive sign for the GOP.

Meantime, Freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., was the biggest upset of the last election cycle. She eked out a victory over Republican Joe Kent by about 2,000 votes. Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent face off again. The district was Republican prior to last cycle. But it’s believed Kent veered too far toward the right, courting former President Trump and pro-MAGA forces. This race could be a bellwether to distill just how well the MAGA message resonates. 

Finally, control of the House could hinge on Alaska.

Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won this at-large seat after Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska died in 2022. Young represented the state in the House for nearly half a century. However, Peltola has never been on the ballot at the same time as former President Trump. Mr. Trump defeated President Biden by ten points here in 2020.

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If Peltola prevails, that victory on solid GOP turf could go a long way toward Democrats flipping the House.

But, because so many of these races might be tight, it may be impossible to divine which party controls the House for a while. Two years ago, it took until mid-November.