Trump holds big lead over DeSantis in '24 GOP race, but most voters say he should be disqualified if indicted

Former President Trump holds a double-digit lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential nomination matchup and remains competitive with President Biden in a potential general election rematch, according to a new national poll.

The poll from Quinnipiac University released on Wednesday also indicates that a majority of Americans say Trump should be disqualified from running for the White House again if criminal charges are filed against him in ongoing local and federal investigations.

The survey is the latest to indicate that Trump — who in November launched his third presidential campaign — remains in the early stages of the 2024 cycle the clear front-runner in the race for his party’s nomination. Trump stands at 47% support among Republicans and GOP leaning independents, who were given a list of 15 actual or potential presidential candidates from which to choose. 

DeSantis, who remains on the 2024 sidelines but is widely expected to enter the race later this year, is second, with 33% support. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is also likely to run, received 5% support, with former ambassador and former two-term South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who launched her campaign last month, at 4%. No one else tops 2% in the survey, which was little changed from a Quinnipiac University poll conducted several weeks prior.

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Biden edges Trump 48%-46% in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, according to the survey. The poll indicates DeSantis ahead of the current president with a razor-thin margin, 48%-46%.

Trump is facing a looming potential indictment from the Manhattan District Attorney in New York City for his alleged role in hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in 2016, to keep her quiet ahead of that year’s election over her claims she had sexual encounters years earlier with Trump. The former president denies sleeping with Daniels and denies falsifying business records to keep the payment concealed.

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The Department of Justice is investigating Trump over the removal of classified government documents from the White House, which were then taken to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, after he left office.

Trump’s alleged role in fomenting the deadly Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by right wing extremists and other Trump supporters aiming to upend congressional certification of Biden’s victory over Trump is also being investigated by several federal government bodies.

By a 57%-38% margin, the poll indicates Americans say Trump should be disqualified from running for president again if charges are filed in the investigations. However, there is a wide partisan divide, with 88% of Democrats and 55% of independents saying Trump should be disqualified, while three-quarters of Republican respondents said criminal charges should not prevent Trump from seeking another term in the White House.

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More than six in 10 questioned said the Manhattan District Attorney’s case was mainly motivated by politics.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted March 23-27, with 1,788 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed. The poll’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for questions asked only of Republican and GOP leaning voters.