Trump and Harris all tied up in key swing states, according to new polls
‘Polling Plus’ podcast hosts Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly say the race between Trump and Harris is extremely tight and discuss the key groups the Trump campaign should target to gain more support.
Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Trump in three crucial 2024 election battleground states, according to a trio of new polls released on Wednesday.
According to surveys from Quinnipiac University, the vice president and Democratic nominee leads the former president and Republican standard-bearer 51%-45% among likely voters in Pennsylvania, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each at 1%.
In Michigan, Harris holds a 50%-45% advantage over Trump, with Stein at 2% and all other third-party candidates at less than 1% support.
The survey indicates a closer contest in Wisconsin, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%, Stein at 1% and everyone else tested grabbing less than 1% support.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump shake hands before their debate in Philadelphia on Sept. 10. (Getty Images)
Harris' one-point edge over Trump in Wisconsin is well within the survey's sampling error.
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The three polls were conducted Sept. 12-16, entirely after the first and potentially only debate between Harris and Trump. The surveys were also in the field mostly before and slightly after Sunday's apparent second assassination attempt against the former president.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, had razor-thin margins that decided the outcome of the 2020 election between Trump and President Biden.
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And these seven battleground states will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are also the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats' so-called "Blue Wall."
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The party reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election to win the White House.
Former President Trump speaks during a rally at 1st Summit Arena at the Cambria County War Memorial in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 30. (AP Photo/Rebecca Droke)
Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats' column and defeated Trump.
Both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, as well as their running mates, have made repeated stops in the three states this summer.
Harris' six-point lead in Pennsylvania is up from a three-point advantage in Quinnipiac's August poll.
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In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris tops Trump 51%-46% in Pennsylvania, up from 50%-47% in August.
In Michigan, the vice president leads the former president 51%-46% in a hypothetical two-way matchup.
And in Wisconsin, it's Harris at 49% and Trump at 48% in a hypothetical two-way face-off.
The Quinnipiac poll was one of two released in Wisconsin on Wednesday.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz attend a campaign rally in Milwaukee on Aug. 20. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)
Harris stands at 48% support among likely voters in Wisconsin, with Trump at 45% in an AARP poll conducted Sept 11-14. The vice president's three-point margin over the former president is within the poll's overall sampling error of plus or minus four points.
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Besides the White House battle, all three states are also home to crucial Senate races that will likely decide whether Republicans can win back the chamber's majority.
The Quinnipiac poll indicates Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leading GOP challenger Dave McCormick 52%-43% in Pennsylvania.
According to the survey, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin holds a 51%-47% advantage over Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
And in Michigan, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabanow, fellow Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin holds a 51%-46% lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP nominee.
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