Cruz race now a toss-up should be warning for Texas GOP, says expert

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The race between Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, for Senate in Texas is heating up, something one expert believes should serve as a warning to Republicans in the dependably red state.

"Texas is an interesting political environment and will become a bellwether within the next decade," Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, told Fox News Digital. "With the recent influx of West Coasters, and a fast-growing Hispanic population, recent elections in Texas are closer than Republicans want."

The comments come as Cruz seeks to fend off yet another tight challenge from a Democratic opponent, this time from Allred, who has represented Texas’ 32nd Congressional District in the Dallas area since 2019.

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In 2012, Ted Cruz easily topped his Democratic opponent by nearly 16 percentage points. (Jabin Botsford - Pool/Getty Images)

While the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Cruz with a five-point lead in the race, there are some troubling signs for the Republican incumbent, including recent polls that show Cruz with a lead close to within the margin of error.

Allred has looked to capitalize on the momentum, taking to social media to highlight a Morning Consult poll that showed him with a slim lead in the race.

"For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don't know about y'all but I'm fired up and ready to WIN," Allred said on X. "We've got 47 days, let's do this Texas."

Prominent Republicans have noticed the challenge, with Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita taking to X to question what is "wrong with the Senate race in Texas" and calling for "some real professionals" to "save" Cruz.

Rep. Colin Allred arrives on the House floor for President Biden's State of the Union address in the U.S. Capitol on March 7, 2024. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

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The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.

Some polls leading up to Cruz’s 2018 Senate race with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, showed a similarly close race, though Cruz was able to hold off the Democratic challenger by under three percentage points.

But that close win was also a stark departure from Cruz’s 2012 victory, when he easily topped former Texas Democratic state Rep. Paul Sadler by nearly 16 percentage points.

That narrowing of the margins in Texas should have Republicans on edge, Keady argued, though he stressed he believed Cruz would be safe in 2024.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Sen. Ted Cruz with a five-point lead in his race for re-election. (Allison Bailey/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

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"Texas will stay red this November and Ted Cruz will win re-election," Keady said. "But Republicans should not take the threat of losing this state lightly. As the Republican Party makes a play for blue states, Democrats are going to start making a play for red states… to hold these seats, Republicans will have to stay disciplined on messaging and prioritize candidate recruitment."

The Cruz campaign did not immediately respond to a Fox News Request for comment.