Congress flirts with debt ceiling collision, another close encounter: REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK

An asteroid a little smaller than the Willis Tower in Chicago will skirt past Earth on Dec. 11.

NASA classifies Asteroid 4660 Nereus as a "potentially hazardous" object. It will hurtle by the Earth at nearly 15,000 miles per hour. The asteroid is in our neighborhood.

But not to fear, earthlings.

The asteroid is still 2.4 million miles away.

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If only Congress' flirtation with a debt ceiling collision weren’t such a close encounter.

"I cannot overstate how critical it is that Congress address this issue," testified Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at a Senate Banking Committee hearing Tuesday. "America must pay its bills on time and in full. If we do not, we will eviscerate our current recovery in a matter of days. The majority of Americans would suffer financial pain as critical payments like Social Security checks and military paychecks would not reach their bank accounts. And that would likely be followed by a deep recession."

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Yellen warned Congress last month that lawmakers had until Dec. 15 to lift the debt ceiling.

Here’s how this works: 

The Treasury loses its ability to borrow if the U.S. government hits the debt ceiling. Yellen told senators that Treasury has enough cash on hand to pay for its current obligations through Dec. 15. But Yellen couldn’t guarantee Treasury’s liquidity on Dec. 16. She told senators that things may be OK for a while after Dec. 15. But Yellen wasn’t certain. Hence, her warning of dire consequences if Congress doesn’t act immediately. 

This problem comes as Democrats try to approve their $1.75 trillion social spending bill by Christmas. In a 50/50 Senate, Democrats know they lack 60 votes to overcome a filibuster to pass their bill. Republicans certainly won’t vote to crack a filibuster. So Democrats are using the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process to skirt the Republican threat. Democrats can then approve their bill on a party-line vote. 

Many Republicans argue that Democrats should also tap the special filibuster-exempt procedure to approve an increase in the debt ceiling on their own – without Republican assistance. But the GOP ties this to Democrats’ attempts to approve their social spending package. 

"There is only one reason that our Democratic colleagues refuse to use reconciliation to raise the debt limit," said Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. "That is because they would have to specify the amount of debt they want to inflict on the American economy. They want to avoid accountability for this terrible spending spree they're engaged in by obfuscating and not specifying a dollar amount." 

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Zero Senate Republicans voted in October to help Democrats lift the debt ceiling then. However, just enough GOP senators voted yea on a procedural measure to terminate a filibuster on the bill. That opened the gateway for Senate Democrats to hike the debt ceiling on their own. 

"We folded," lamented Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., at the GOP strategy in October. 

After a football-spiking speech on the floor by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., fired off an angry missive to President Biden about the debt ceiling. 

"In light of Senator Schumer’s hysterics and my grave concerns about the ways that another vast, reckless, partisan spending bill would hurt Americans and help China, I will not be a party to any future effort to mitigate the consequences of Democratic mismanagement," wrote McConnell. 

Translation: Democrats should tangle with this debt ceiling crisis on their own. 

But despite McConnell’s white-hot epistle to the president, the minority leader may have softened his stance on the debt ceiling. 

Just before Thanksgiving, McConnell and Schumer huddled to discuss ways forward on the debt ceiling in an effort to avert a standoff. 

"We agreed to keep talking and working together," said McConnell in mid-November in an effort to dial down the acrimony. 

McConnell further softened his October stance on the debt ceiling when lawmakers returned to session this week. 

"Let me assure everyone the government will not default as it never has. And second, the majority leader and I have been having discussions about the way forward here," said McConnell Tuesday. 

Schumer embraced the open channel. 

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"Leader McConnell and I are having good conversations on this," said Schumer. "I’m not going to get into the details." 

This is the same strategy over which Graham and other Republicans criticized McConnell in October. At first, they believed McConnell was locked-in on the debt ceiling, explaining that Democrats should haul the freight on their own. Then McConnell backed away and greenlighted – indirectly – a short-term debt ceiling increase. Shortly after the October debt ceiling vote, McConnell dashed off his letter to Biden. A month later, McConnell was in talks with Schumer again and saying the nation wouldn’t default. 

What whiplash. 

Schumer then sidestepped a reporter’s question as to whether Democrats might use the reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling on their own. 

"We hope to come up with a bipartisan agreement that both parties support that doesn’t risk us with the debt limit," replied Schumer, never touching the reconciliation subject. 

Watching all of this from the wings is former President Trump. A lot of House and Senate Republicans try to emulate the former president when it comes to their votes and policy decisions. 

Trump blistered McConnell, as he often does, with a sizzling statement from afar. 

"Old Crow Mitch McConnell, who is getting beaten on every front by the Radical Left Democrats since giving them a two-month delay which allowed them to ‘get their act together,’ must be fully prepared to use the DEBT CEILING in order to totally kill the Democrat’s new Social Spending (Wasting!) Bill, which will change our Country forever," wrote the former president. "Mitch and the Republican Senators had them beaten, but didn’t know it, and we ended up with the Unfrastructure Bill, which is only 11% infrastructure." 

Trump argued that McConnell should "Use the Debt Ceiling, Mitch, show strength and courage" for leverage against Democrats.

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That’s the problem for McConnell. 

McConnell twice suggested this fall he’s digging in on the debt ceiling. Then McConnell backed away. With the former president watching his every move, McConnell can only sustain so many political slashes before it jeopardizes his political capital. 

McConnell is a shrewd, political tactician. But he is also a Senate institutionalist. He also knows the consequences for the nation should the nation smack into the debt ceiling. 

There’s a solution yet for this latest brush with the debt ceiling. 

Over at NASA, astronomers have tracked Asteroid 4660 Nereus since the early 1980s. They know its trajectory, speed and the threat it poses. Since the asteroid cruises by regularly, the Japanese space agency even dabbled with the idea of "moving" the asteroid with a spacecraft to knock it off course. 

That concept tracks closely with whatever idea Congress may settle on for the debt ceiling. 

Lawmakers could vote to raise the debt ceiling. But that doesn’t really move the national debt "off course." The debt just keeps spiking. And every so often, Congress must increase the debt ceiling. Little is done to address the overall debt or federal spending. 

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Policymakers have worried for decades that so much debt will eventually haunt the U.S. 

It’s kind of like the asteroid. The asteroid just keeps passing close to the Earth at regular intervals. 2.4 million miles away. It’s "potentially hazardous." But everything is fine. 

Until it isn’t.