WATCH: Chinese rubber boat blocks Philippines coast guard in the middle of a medical evacuation
Chinese vessels harassed and blocked members of the Philippines coast guard who were attempting the medical evacuation of a sick crew member. (Philippine Coast Guard)
Taiwan, Ukraine and Gaza get most of the attention these days. But the United States’ reputation as a reliable ally is nowhere more at stake than in the Philippines.
And that reputation is on the verge of going down the drain.
June 17 saw the most recent and most violent effort by the China Coast Guard (CCG) to prevent Philippine resupply of BNP Sierra Madre, an old navy ship deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal and manned by a detachment of sailors and marines in order to assert Philippine control of the shoal.
In this image made from video handout provided by the Philippine Coast Guard, a China Coast Guard ship rams the Philippine navy-operated supply boat Unaizah Mae 1 as it approaches Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on Dec. 10, 2023. (Philippine Coast Guard via AP)
This shouldn’t be necessary since Second Thomas Shoal is well within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
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However, China claims ownership and has been interfering with Philippine Coast Guard and Navy resupply efforts with increasing force.
This time, brandishing knives, axes and spears, flashing lasers and using sound weapons, and ramming and towing outnumbered Philippine boats, the Chinese seriously injured a Philippine sailor and damaged and seized Philippine boats and stole property.
Accounts differ as to whether one Philippine boat slipped through.
Regardless, this was the most violent Chinese effort to date.
Will clashes between China Coast Guard and Philippine forces intensify?
Yes. The Chinese have been clear about what they intend to do with Philippine maritime territory that they covet: dominate, control and, if necessary, seize and occupy – and make it impossible for their smaller, outmatched victims to retake it.
This is the pattern they've used throughout the South China Sea. And they are willing to use force to get their way.
These clashes will continue until the Philippines backs off (surrenders) or the United States steps in – and lives up to its commitments to its Philippine allies.
Also, note it's not just China’s Coast Guard that's active in Philippine territory. The People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia is also operating in conjunction with CCG as is the 'regular' Chinese fishing fleet. And the PLAN (Chinese Navy) is always nearby.
Nobody likes to admit it, but the PRC used its "numbers" advantage and man-made island bases to establish de facto control of the South China Sea at least seven or eight years ago. Its grip continues to tighten.
What’s next?
This is coming to a head. The Philippines is not in a position to withstand the much larger Chinese force that is deployed at Second Thomas Shoal – and that can be increased at will.
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Unless Manila agrees to a humiliating deal with the PRC to give up ultimate control of Second Thomas Shoal in exchange for Chinese permission to resupply the Philippine's grounded ship, the Philippines will eventually have to evacuate the detachment aboard BNP Sierra Madre.
Should the United States get directly involved?
Only if the United States cares to live up to its promises to defend a treaty ally. If the Biden administration does nothing to help its friends, America's reputation and reliability will be shredded. And worldwide – not just in Manila or Asia.
Tokyo is no doubt watching closely – as it has a similar treaty promising American protection from outside aggression.
The U.S. has already sold out the Philippines to the PRC on two occasions in recent years: 2012, at Scarborough Shoal, where the Chinese illegally occupied Philippine territory, and 2016, following the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling that overwhelmingly backed Manila's position against Beijing's illegal activities in the South China Sea and in Philippine maritime territory.
Washington did nothing to help in 2012 and refused to help the Philippines enforce the 2016 PCA ruling.
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Manila felt betrayed.
That's two strikes. Three strikes... and you’re out.
Filipinos are presumably wondering exactly what is the benefit of the mutual defense treaty with the United States and the more recent EDCA agreement that allows greater U.S. military activity in the Philippines.
And President Ferdinand Marcos' opponents will argue he is a chump who moved the country close to America, and was left hanging when help was really needed.
What could the US do?
No more statements of concern and pronouncements of ironclad commitments.
Have U.S. Navy ships and aircraft accompany Philippine boats on any and all missions in Philippine territory where the Chinese might interfere – and use force if necessary. Resupply Second Thomas Shoal using U.S. ships and helicopters if necessary.
CHINESE COAST GUARD BLOCKED MEDICAL EVACUATION, PHILIPPINES SAYS: 'BARBARIC AND INHUMANE'
Don’t just resupply. Help the Philippines build a permanent structure on Second Thomas Shoal – and help them defend it.
And send the U.S. Navy along with Philippine ships to Scarborough Shoal and remove all Chinese boats squatting in the area.
Make it clear to Beijing that if it wants a fight it will get one.
Nothing short of this will work.
And also apply pressure asymmetrically. Suspend the People's Bank of China's license to operate in the U.S. dollar system for six months, and ban all technology exports to China for six months as well.
No need to give a reason.
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They'll know why.
But isn’t all this "escalatory"?
Let the PRC have its way with the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal and elsewhere and we’ll see "escalation" of an entirely different sort – from the Chinese.
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This all could have been avoided if the United States had kept its promises earlier.
Team Biden ought to give it a try.
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