President Trump gave Iranian leaders an off-ramp Wednesday from their dangerous confrontation with the U.S. They would be wise to take it.
In televised remarks, Trump promised to hit Iran with tough new economic sanctions – but significantly, didn’t threaten a military response to the Iranian missile strike on U.S. forces in Iraq Wednesday morning that caused no casualties.
That’s the off-ramp. Rather than continue an escalation that could lead to further attacks and counterattacks, Trump made clear that he would rather see Iran stop its sponsorship of terrorism and efforts to develop nuclear weapons on its own accord – without the need for U.S. military action.
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At the same time, Trump stated the obvious fact that the U.S. has the mightiest military on Earth – and had top military commanders standing behind to make the unmistakable point that he isn’t taking the possibility of military action off the table.
Iran’s military commanders know the U.S. can destroy their status as a regional military power in one night. If they are ready to tell Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei about the true risks of more escalation, perhaps the ayatollah will take Iran down the off-ramp that Trump has offered. Until then, U.S. policy remains to confront and contain the Islamic Republic.
The Trump policy of letting Iran stew with more sanctions and aggressive new diplomacy makes sense, and shows that Trump is not the reckless warmonger his Democratic critics claim.
The good news is that Iran is standing down after the Wednesday morning missile strikes at two military bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed.
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Why did the Iranians not stage a much harsher retaliation for the killing of Iranian terrorist Gen. Qassem Soleimani? Because they know President Trump will respond with force when Americans are killed. Trump proved this when he ordered the killing of Soleimani on Friday, following an Iranian-backed militia attack that killed a U.S. contractor in Iraq.
The fact that Iranian leaders have said they are not planning further attacks if the U.S. does not retaliate for the missile strikes Wednesday is huge. Trump and his national security team took a look at Iran’s military force posture after the attacks and saw that Iran is standing down rather than ramping up its military forces – at least for now.
While we will never see this intelligence, it’s clear that the U.S. assessment must be based on a range of imagery and signals intelligence and watching Iran’s military forces. The force posture indicates big military operations by Iran aren’t imminent.
While Trump has chosen to leave the option of launching massive airstrikes against Iran in place without using it for now, the Iranian regime knows he can hit their nation any time. If the Iranians are smart, they will not provoke Trump.
In his brief remarks, Trump called on our NATO allies to step up. Count on NATO forces to stay in Iraq on the anti-ISIS mission alongside U.S. forces. NATO isn’t on the run.
Trump also wants top U.S. allies to slam the door on the deeply flawed Iran nuclear deal that the U.S. has withdrawn from – but made clear that deal or no deal, he will not tolerate a nuclear Iran.
“As long as I am president, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said sternly as he began his remarks.
The president wants Britain, France, Germany and the European Union to “break away from the remnants of the Iran deal.” That’s a big ask, so let’s hope our allies are finally ready to deliver.
Iran left the deal months ago when it flagrantly violated terms of the agreement by enriching uranium, running new centrifuges and taking other actions.
The new economic sanctions on Iran that Trump announced Wednesday are his favorite form of leverage. And he couldn’t resist dangling the carrot of economic opportunity in front of Iran, just like he does with North Korea.
If Iran will stop being the world’s leading state sponsor or terrorism and stop seeking to develop nuclear weapons, the nation has great possibilities for a bright and prosperous future, the president said.
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Iran can get sanctions relief by discussing new nuclear deal terms. In fact, last summer Trump was willing for Europe to give Iran immediate cash relief if Iran agreed to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.
Iran’s meager oil exports, shrinking economy and near-worthless currency add to the pressure on the regime to back down. Understand, Iranians literally can’t use credit cards due to U.S. financial sanctions. The sanctions are hitting ordinary citizens in Iran in many ways.
Economic maximum pressure exerted by the U.S. almost brought Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the table in September. Foolishly, Iran failed to accept Trump’s willingness to talk without preconditions
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Right now the ball is in Iran’s court. After staging its attack on U.S. forces in Iraq, the Iranian regime can act in the interests of its own people to ratchet down tensions with America by changing its malign behavior. Or it can stay on its present course and make things worse for its own citizens.
However it turns out, the Iranians have learned one thing for sure: President Trump will not draw meaningless red lines and turn a blind eye to their dangerous and hostile behavior.