Pennsylvania could decide who wins election, Fox News Decision Desk says
Fox News Decision Desk Director Arnon Mishkin on what to look out for on election night as the results come in and how Pennsylvania could be the final indicator on who will win the White House.
Philadelphia, PA
There are times when public opinion seems so certain about something that I instinctively start to doubt it. I have that distinct feeling in Philadelphia, where everyone I’ve spoken to, almost all Democrats, believe Vice President Kamala Harris is set to lose the election.
Gregg was watching the Eagles take down the Bengals at McGlinchey’s, a civilized establishment that still allows smoking inside. "I’m more to the left than Harris," he told me, "the candidate I like the most is Jill Stein."
Aside from his ideological differences with Harris, Glenn, in his 60s, who lives in West Philly and is an environmental activist, echoed what I have heard all over the state and the country: "I don’t know who she is or what she wants to do. Is she going to be like Biden, and if not, how will she be different?"
TRUMP GIVES PENNSYLVANIA A PLEA TO END INFLATION AND 'FRACK, FRACK, FRACK'
This is clearly Harris’s biggest weakness, especially in a race against former President Donald Trump who, love him or hate him, is one of the most well-known quantities in the universe.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a rally in Houston, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
A little while later I found myself on the other side of Broad Street and went into a gay bar/restaurant looking for a burger. I met two gentlemen in their 60s whose critique of candidate Harris was sharper: "She’s just bad at this," one of them told me. The other added, "there’s nothing compelling about her, I hope she beats Trump, but I’m just not seeing it."
Harris doesn’t just need to win Philly by 60 points, which she very much may. She needs turnout to be overwhelming if she is to overcome Trump’s strength in the central part of Pennsylvania, and that requires a level of enthusiasm that, frankly, I have not seen for her. Not in Philadelphia, not anywhere.
My hotel had a lovely social hour in the early evening, and there, over a delightful cheese plate, I met a Canadian couple who are very worried that Trump will win. I asked them why and the husband cited trade deals and called Trump, "a Trojan horse of fascism." Oddly, in that order.
The couple had planned their trip to coincide with the election, at the time, thinking they would be tourists to a Democratic victory, but like everyone else I met in the City of Brotherly Love, they now think Trump is winning, but they’re still having fun.
Earlier, as the Eagles were flying on the wings of victory in garbage time, Glenn asked me, "Whaddya think is gonna happen?"
"You mean, who’s gonna win?" I asked.
"No, like, will there be chaos and violence in the streets?"
Former President Barack Obama is coming to Pennsylvania to promote the campaign of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. FILE: Obama introduces Harris during a campaign rally for Harris on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024, in Clarkston, Ga. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
"I hope not," I replied, asking him what he thought.
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"I don’t think so," he told me. "I’m the kinda guy who goes out on the streets, and I don’t feel it this time. People seemed resigned to the idea he can win."
And it struck me that this is an election of resignation. Biden resigned from the race, some moderate Republicans are resigned to the fact that it is Trump’s party, and now, so many Democrats are resigned to the notion that Trump will serve four more years.
Harris doesn’t just need to win Philly by 60 points, which she very much may. She needs turnout to be overwhelming if she is to overcome Trump’s strength in the central part of Pennsylvania, and that requires a level of enthusiasm that, frankly, I have not seen for her. Not in Philadelphia, not anywhere.
But even with all I have heard and seen in the last two weeks, the doom and gloom surrounding the Harris campaign, Trump’s polling surge, there is still part of me that thinks the Democrats have the wherewithal to pull off the win.
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If that is going to happen, it is going to have to happen in Philadelphia, where Harris was on Sunday and where Bruce Springsteen and former President Barack Obama will stump for her Monday.
Right now, though, under the ever-steady gaze of William Penn atop city hall, Kamala’s Alamo does not feel secure.
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