Electing GOP Senate majority in 2022 may depend on upset in this state
Joe Biden is unpopular in Colorado, hurting Sen Michael Bennet's chances for re-election
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Earlier this year, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet sat down with Politico to discuss his bid for re-election. The Democrat incumbent described his chances in a less-than-optimistic tone, saying "when you’re in the same party as the president, that’s gonna be a tough cycle."
Time has passed since that interview, but the sentiments remain the same. President Joe Biden is incredibly unpopular in Colorado. He’s maintaining a 42% approval rating, due largely in part to Coloradans’ frustrations over the government’s handling of inflation and soaring gas prices.
Bennet’s popularity is no different. He trails the president with only a 41% statewide approval rating. Colorado Republicans, including Bennet’s Republican challenger Joe O’Dea – a Denver native and construction company CEO – are hitting Bennet hard on the fact that the senator has voted with Biden 98% of the time.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Sen. Michael Bennet speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on July 15, 2021. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
"Michael Bennet is Joe Biden’s senator who does bipartisanship like he does fly fishing – only every once in a while, during an election season," O’Dea campaign manager Zack Roday, said in a recent statement.
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In 2016, Bennet won his re-election by 5.7 points; a similar margin Hillary Clinton secured that same year. However, in a non-presidential election year, Bennet is much weaker. He only won his 2010 bid by 1.7 points against then Weld County District Attorney and now Congressman Ken Buck.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}While many outside of Colorado view the Centennial State as blue, recent trends in voter registrations and voter turnout may change that perception.
According to the Colorado secretary of state, there are roughly 3.7 million active voters in the state. During this year’s June 28 primary elections, 1.2 million, or 32% of active voters, voted. Bennet secured 516,985 of those votes, yet the top two Republican finishers received a combined 633,543 votes.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}And while there are more Democrats than Republicans in Colorado (1.03 million compared to 931,184), the largest voting bloc in the state is among unaffiliated/independent voters, making up almost 1.7 million.
There haven’t been any noticeable polls since June’s contest, but by looking at the numbers alone, Republicans are seeing a surge of involvement within the state. They turned out more than 100,000 votes over Bennet in June and Joe O’Dea’s recent appeal to independents (and disgruntled Democrats) is increasing his popularity in the state.
Republican Senate candidate Joe O'Dea hands out doughnuts to voters outside the state GOP assembly, on April 9, 2022, in Colorado Springs, Colorado. (Joe O'Dea Senate campaign)
In a recently released O’Dea campaign television ad, a voter states "everyone in Washington votes the party line. Joe won’t. He doesn’t care about partisanship. He’ll represent Colorado."
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A direct appeal to independents is the way to win in Colorado and as a non-politician going against a political insider/unpopular incumbent, O’Dea is in a stronger position to capitalize on their support.
So, while most Americans across the country are keeping a close eye on Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it’s safe to say that a potential upset this election year will come from the most unlikely of places, Colorado.
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