As Joe Biden’s presidential approval numbers continue to slip, it is reasonable to ask at what point is the Biden administration politically unsalvageable.
The clear evidence is that the Biden policies are not working well for most, including for Biden voters. A trend of buyer’s remorse is developing among young, independent, women (you don’t have to be a biologist to read poll numbers either), and minority voters.
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President Joe Biden speaks at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, in Greensboro, Thursday, April 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Tellingly, Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign pollster, John Anzalone, is lowering expectations ahead of the bloodbath by saying it is "the worst political environment" he’s seen in three decades. Democrats on the Hill have doubled down on the most radically left policy agenda including cheerleading the end of American energy independence, inflation-inducing runaway government spending and a cornucopia of perverse woke cultural oddities.
Even if a voter likes the new lefty policies, the overall numbers are sobering.
A Quinnipiac poll released last week has only 33 percent of Americans approving of Biden’s job performance—the lowest approval rating in his presidency. It’s even worse among crucial independent voters, of whom only 26 percent approve of Biden. Biden has now strung together three quarters of dangerously low approvals.
Presidents have rebounded from low numbers in the past, but the longer he stays at or below 40 percent, the more Democrats on the Hill will abandon him and his pet projects. In fact, there is already a clear trend of Democrats in tough races not inviting Biden or Harris to campaign alongside them. The next step will be shrewd Republicans finding precious video footage of Biden with said Democrat candidates. That video will be somewhat tough to find with a president who hides out more than hangs out.
Other strategists have echoed similar concerns to Anzalone. Former Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn called Biden’s numbers "spectacularly low" and speculated that his record disapproval makes Biden’s re-election a "virtual impossibility." In diving through Gallup presidential approvals for the last 5 plus decades, both Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter seem like fitting models. However, President Bill Clinton, who was elected with a minority of Americans but still managed to win a second term, should be their model. After attempting to socialize healthcare and using his office to satisfy his base, he found himself with dangerously low approvals. Voters in 1994 flocked to Republicans no matter how marginal.
Practiced at begging for mulligans, Clinton famously went to Congress to proclaim "the era of big government is over," and hired an infamous Republican strategist to help him run against Washington, Democrats in Congress, and the status quo. The lesson from Clinton was there is redemption but only with a hard rhetorical shift to the center.
The strategy was less successful for one-termers Johnson and Carter. Carter’s economic failures combined with a perceived weakness towards the twin evils of an expansionist Soviet Union and a terrorist theocratic Iranian regime and our hostages in their grip, sealed his fate.
Johnson was one of the most able politicians of his age and had been the Master of the Senate. But the presidency and its previous occupant dwarfed the public image of LBJ.
Biden, who has been in elected office his entire adult life, has long pined for the presidency. He now has the role he always wanted, but the bad habits that ended previous presidencies have combined with the ravages of the clock. Even those who admire him must wince when they see him dazed and confused at public events.
This is not a good moment for the presidency.
Johnson knew the uphill battle he faced. With an unpopular war and terrible approval numbers, he made the decision himself to pull the cord and not seek reelection. Candidly, it is difficult to imagine Biden understanding his situation well enough to make a similar decision. The unique question with Biden is will team Obama eventually determine that the Biden gig is up? After all, they played the biggest role in promoting Biden and seem to populate the big jobs in his administration. Team Obama’s incentive is to keep up appearances and run the show, but how much longer can the public circus continue?
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Regardless of the palace intrigue at the White House, President Biden is in as bad political shape as any post World War II president. There are no scenarios that can salvage Democrat losses in November. Democrats will be rejected by voters because their policies are so radical that they can’t even survive school board elections in San Francisco. It is simply too much, and most Americans are tired of the war waged by the culture elites on the goodness of America and the necessity of her founding.
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If sizable losses in November are inevitable, the important question is what lesson will be learned. Will the Socialist Democrats take the losses as a rejection of their policies, or simply as speed bump on their road to transforming America?
Will Biden realize after the midterms that his political future is over and choose the Johnson course, or will he go down in a historic defeat like Carter? Perhaps he will wake up and realize that America is a center-right country and choose the Clinton course. I wouldn’t put my money on him rejecting socialism but, for the sake of the country, I hope he does.
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