Arnon Mishkin: Biden-Harris team signals 'we're the risk-free ticket' -- but will it sway voters?
While the Harris choice is safe it carries with it initial signs of an opening for the Republicans
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Was anyone surprised by presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s choice of Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif. as his running mate? Wasn’t it always going to be Harris -- the polls said it, the leaks suggested it, and even the history of Biden and Harris’ relationship -- which links with his late son Beau -- foretold it.
And maybe that's a key point of the choice: “I'm Joe Biden and when I'm president I won't surprise you.”
It's a clear contrast to President Trump, who never misses an opportunity to deliver the unexpected: Threatening war on the “Rocket Man” of North Korea at the United Nations…A summit with the same “Rocket Man” a few months later …a willingness to overrule many of the most senior advisors and exit the deal with Iran…an executive order to avoid a stalemate on Capitol Hill.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}DONNA BRAZILE: KAMALA HARRIS WILL MAKE A GREAT VP – AN INCREDIBLY TALENTED BLACK WOMAN
One reliable thing about President Trump: whatever one is expecting today will likely be supplanted by something different tomorrow.
For many of his voters, it’s the disruption – in and of itself – that is the point.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Biden’s strategy is quite simple – I’ll stay here in Delaware, with my forty plus years of experience at the national level…I’ll pick a fairly establishment Democrat as my running mate…we’re the risk-free ticket…and let’s keep this election as a referendum on the incumbent.
Washington had become so sclerotic – with long-standing power centers, lobbyists and partisan groups ignoring the needs of many in the country – that only a successful billionaire with an outsized ability to demand attention could possibly fix it.
Biden is focusing his appeal on the other voters – who, while they may support at least part of his record on taxes or judicial appointments or regulation – are at a minimum fatigued.
And Biden’s strategy is quite simple – I’ll stay here in Delaware, with my forty plus years of experience at the national level…I’ll pick a fairly establishment Democrat as my running mate…we’re the risk-free ticket…and let’s keep this election as a referendum on the incumbent.
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While the Harris choice is safe, particularly as she was publicly vetted during her initially promising but in the end disappointing presidential campaign in 2019, it carries with it initial signs of an opening for the Republicans.
And the Trump campaign immediately pounced on the effort with a rapid response ad that made three key points: That she was a candidate of the “Radical Left”…reminding voters about her attacks on Biden’s opposition to busing in the 70s in an early debate in 2019…and that she would actually be the one in charge of “Sleepy Joe’s” administration.
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I wouldn’t bank on convincing voters that former prosecutor Harris is part of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party – indeed her problem in seeking the nomination was that even Democratic voters didn’t believe she was part of the left.
And, not to be cynical, but I suspect it won’t hurt Biden if swing voters are convinced that he opposed busing.
But the Republicans arguably can make the case that Biden isn’t smart enough – indeed his historical political appeal has been that he’s really just “Regular Joe.”
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}So maybe the attacks on Biden-Harris could draw blood. The Republicans have precious little opportunities remaining particularly given the COVID-19 impact and the resultant lack of televised rallies where Trump could effectively launch televised attacks on his opponents.
They basically have the convention week, and then the four debates: Three where Trump will try to be as effective as Harris was in throwing Biden off his game – and making voters believe he is "sleepy Joe" – and the fourth where Vice President Mike Pence will try to prove that Harris’ debate performance against Biden was just a flash in the pan.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In the meantime, Biden is content to underscore the contrast between his and the incumbent’s personas – and make voters choose up or down on President Donald J. Trump.
There’s a saying in the Vatican, observing the history of conclaves selecting Popes, typically alternating between different approaches to religion and governance: "After a fat pope, a thin pope." The College of Cardinals has been running that process since 1059AD, and the political wisdom of the millennium seems to be driving the Biden campaign in 2020.