Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May

President Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump for the first time since October, as positive views of the economy inch up — hitting their highest level thus far in the Biden presidency, according to a new Fox News national survey.  

Since May, there was a 3-point change in the presidential race. Trump was ahead by 1 point last month, while Biden is up by 2 points today: 50%-48%. That’s well within the margin of error.

Beyond improved evaluations of the economy, a range of other events since the May survey could influence small shifts in vote preference, including Trump’s hush money conviction, Hunter Biden’s gun trial conviction, a positive U.S. jobs report and Biden’s immigration executive order.

Biden’s current 50% support is his best this election cycle; he hasn’t been ahead of Trump since October 2023 and that was by just 1 point (49%-48%).

There was also a 4-point shift in the expanded ballot. When other potential candidates are included, Biden tops Trump by 1 point (43%-42%), Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 10% and Cornel West and Jill Stein get 2% each. Last month, Trump was ahead of Biden by 3 points (43%-40%).  

Trump does well among men (+15), rural voters (+17), White men without a degree (+30) and White evangelical Christians (+46). Biden matches that with strong support among voters ages 65 and over (+15), women (+17), urban voters (+23) and White women with a college degree (+28).

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Biden receives the backing of 73% of Black voters. That’s a bit below the 79% he had before the 2020 election, when he went on to win over Blacks with 91% support, according to the November 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis. 

The new survey shows nearly all partisans remain loyal, as 95% of Democrats are with Biden and 95% of Republicans back Trump.  

The key is that Independents favor Biden by 9 points, a shift from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points. While equal numbers of Independents say leadership (59%) and integrity (58%) are extremely important to their vote decision, they are more likely to say Biden has integrity by 23 points compared to Trump being a strong leader by only 11. More on those traits later.

"The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans."

Trump retains a smidgeon more of his 2020 voters than Biden in the head-to-head (by 1 point) and the expanded ballot (+3), and new voters favor him in both the 2-way (by 4 points) and the 5-way (+6). Voters who haven’t participated in the four most recent general elections are defined as new voters.

Three-quarters of voters say it matters "a great deal" to them who wins the presidential election, and they favor Biden over Trump by 5 points. More women than men (by 7 points) feel like the outcome matters a great deal, as do more voters ages 65+ than young voters (+24) — that could be a big help to Biden if it holds.

While it is too early to look at results among likely voters, Trump is preferred by 3 points over Biden among the two-thirds of voters who say they feel "extremely" motivated to vote this year.

Among double-haters (those having an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump), Biden is ahead by 11 points in the 2-way race, and they go for Kennedy (35%) and Biden (27%) over Trump (21%) in the 5-way race. 

On the personal level, majorities have a negative view of Trump (57% unfavorable), Vice President Harris (57%), Biden (56%) and Kennedy (51%). Some 46% have an unfavorable opinion of first lady Jill Biden, and 72% of first son Hunter Biden.

Among Democrats, 84% have a positive view of President Biden and 82% of the first lady, 77% for Harris, and 35% for Hunter, while 86% of Republicans view Trump favorably.  

Are people feeling better about the economy?

While the survey shows an uptick in economic ratings, the overall sentiment is still negative.  

One-third of voters, 32%, say the economy is in excellent or good shape — the highest in Biden’s presidency. The previous high was 30% last month (and September 2021).

Fifty-nine percent say they are getting ahead or holding steady financially, up 5 points since last summer, and 44% feel optimistic about the economy, up 9 points compared to 2023.  

Economic sentiment may be improving, but it’s far from boom times: A 56% majority is pessimistic about the economy, 4 in 10 say they are falling behind financially and two-thirds rate economic conditions as only fair or poor (68%).

The more upbeat views on the economy, as modest as they are, help Biden’s job ratings: A record 37% approve of his handling of inflation and 41% approve on the economy — the highest in over two years. About one-third give him positive marks on immigration (35%, up from 30% last month) and the Israel-Hamas war (32% approve).

Overall, 45% of voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president and 55% disapprove. While that’s unchanged from last month, those remain his best marks since January 2023.

Thirty-four percent are satisfied with how things are going in the country today. That’s up 2 ticks since a year ago and the highest in over three years, but still lower by 11 points compared to when Biden took office in 2021.

Is the race more about the candidates or the issues?

By a 59%-29% margin, voters say this election is more about who can better handle the issues than about the character of the candidates. Republicans are about 20 points more likely than Democrats and independents to say it is about issues. Almost 4 in 10 Democrats and independents think it is about character, compared to just 2 in 10 Republicans.

Majorities say leadership (66%) and integrity (61%) will be extremely important to their vote choice, while less than half feel that way about age and mental soundness (45%).  

More voters think Trump has the mental soundness (by 7 points) and that he is a strong leader (+10), while Biden has the lead on honesty (by 10 points) and empathy (+6).  

The top two issues for voters are the future of American democracy and the economy.  Next, stability and normalcy, followed by immigration and health care. Nearly half say abortion and guns will be extremely important to their vote, while closer to one-third feel that way about standing up to elite interests, climate change and the Israel-Hamas war.  

Voters trust Trump on two of the top five issues: immigration (by 9 points) and the economy (+5). However, those are narrower advantages than he enjoyed in May (+15 immigration and +13 economy). He’s also preferred on handling the Israel-Hamas war (+4). More trust Biden to do a better job on health care (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6), while his biggest advantages are on the somewhat lesser priorities of abortion (+13) and climate change (+20). Neither candidate has a clear edge on stability and normalcy (Biden +3), standing up to elite interests (Biden +2) or guns (Trump +2).  

"There is not a lot of movement in this poll since May, but it is enough to make this a welcome poll for Biden," says Anderson. "The vote preference improvement is one thing, but perhaps more importantly, we saw notable erosion of Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, while Biden built on his advantages on abortion and health care. If voters don’t perceive Trump as significantly better on the economy and immigration, the rationale for returning him to office will become much murkier for some voters."

What is happening with RFK Jr.?

Kennedy’s net personal favorable rating has gone from being in positive territory by 3 points to being net negative by 11. A slim 51% majority views him unfavorably.

Meanwhile, his support in the 5-way presidential ballot has declined by 1 point each month, going from 15% in November 2023 down to 10% today. That’s a notable trend, even though the difference is within the margin of error. 

His supporters break evenly between Biden and Trump in the 2-way race, 47% apiece.

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Roughly equal numbers of those backing Biden (9%) and Trump (10%) in the 2-way matchup shift to Kennedy in the expanded ballot. West and Stein take more support away from Biden (5%) than Trump (2%).

Poll-pourri 

Three in 10 voters say debate performance will be extremely important to their vote for president, and by a 5-point margin more think Trump will win next week’s debate. A few more Democrats (9%) think Trump will win than Republicans (6%) say the same about Biden.  

The survey asks voters what comes to mind when they hear about threats to the future of American democracy and, by a wide margin, more think of the threats as the end of certain "rights and freedoms" than the end of "free and fair elections" (53%-30%), and that holds true among Democrats, Republicans and independents.  

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By a 23-point margin, more think Hunter Biden’s gun trial (79%) was fair than Trump’s hush-money trial (56%). Four percent say Hunter’s conviction led them to change their support in the presidential race toward Trump or a third-party candidate, while 5% say Trump’s conviction caused a shift in their support to Biden or someone else.

CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND CROSSTABS

Conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (130) and cellphones (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. 

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.