Fox News Poll: Pennsylvania looks headed for another tight race in 2024

The Keystone State saw nail-biters in both the 2016 and 2020 elections and looks to be headed for a repeat this November.

Former President Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential race by less than a percentage point, while President Biden squeaked out his 2020 win by just over a point.

In the presumptive 2024 rematch, Trump (49%) has a narrow edge over Biden (47%) among Pennsylvania registered voters, according to the latest Fox News Poll released Wednesday. That 2-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error.

Biden held a campaign event near Philadelphia on Friday, and Trump last visited in February.

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Biden sees his strongest support from nonwhite voters (64%), White voters with a college degree (57%), suburban women (57%) and those ages 65 and over (50%).

For Trump, it is White evangelical Christians (73%), White men without a college degree (63%), rural voters (59%) and Gen Xers (54%). 

Both candidates have mostly locked down voters from their own parties, as roughly 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans support their party’s presumed nominee.  

In a potential five-way matchup, the race is a tie, with Biden and Trump getting 42% apiece. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. comes in third with 9%, while Jill Stein and Cornel West get 2% each.

A quarter of Republicans (24%) do not identify with the MAGA movement and Trump is hurt in the five-way because of it, as 4 in 10 of them support either Biden or third-party candidates. Among these non-MAGA Republicans, the race goes 52% Trump, 19% Biden and 19% Kennedy. Support among independents splinters: 29% Trump, 25% Biden and 21% Kennedy.  

In the two-way race, non-MAGA Republicans are more solidly behind Trump (70%), yet 2 in 10 still back Biden (22%). Independents go for Trump over Biden by 7 points (44%-37%), which is well within the margin of sampling error. 

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"Non-MAGA voters are hurting Trump a bit and Biden’s coalition is less frayed in Pennsylvania than it is in other battleground states," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "The key seems to be rosier economic perceptions in this state, as 59% say the economy is getting better or holding steady, and Biden is golden among those voters." 

The economy once again comes out on top as the most important issue to voters when deciding who to cast a ballot for in November, and most Pennsylvanians are feeling either neutral or positive about their financial situation.  

Six in 10 say they are holding steady (45%) or getting ahead (14%), and these voters go overwhelmingly for Biden. The remaining 4 in 10 feel they are falling behind, and they strongly support Trump.  

Six in 10 Pennsylvanians (61%) say the economy will be extremely important to them come November. That’s followed by more than 5 in 10 saying it is election integrity (55% extremely important) and immigration/border security (52%). All other issues are below 50%: health care (47% extremely important), foreign policy (40%), abortion (39%) and climate change (27%).

There is little partisan agreement on the issues. For Democrats, health care, abortion and election integrity are extremely important, while for Republicans and independents it is the economy, immigration/border security and election integrity. 

When asked which candidate would better handle these issues, Biden and Trump each have advantages. Of the top three, Biden is seen as better on election integrity (+7 points), while Trump is better on the economy (+12) and immigration/border security (+16). 

Among lower-ranking issues, Biden is favored on abortion (+8 points), health care (+8) and climate change (+17), while Trump is seen as slightly better on foreign policy (+4).

Being mentally sound (74% extremely important) and honest and trustworthy (73%) are the top candidate traits voters will consider when deciding their choice in the fall. That’s followed by being willing to fight for people like you (69%) and being a strong leader (68%). Fewer prioritize voting for a candidate who is not too extreme (38%). 

Biden is preferred among voters who say honesty and not being too extreme is extremely important, while Trump is the choice among those saying the same about being mentally sound, a strong leader and willing to fight. 

"Pennsylvania looks relatively stable since 2020," says Anderson. "It is still a tossup, but it hasn’t drifted away from Biden to the degree we’ve seen in some places. But we have a long way to go, and many things could change, including perceptions of the economy, the candidates’ integrity and their mental capacity, all important drivers of vote choice." 

Over half of Pennsylvania voters, 54%, disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, while 45% approve. They are also more likely to strongly disapprove (43%) than strongly approve (25%) of him.   

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Six in 10 believe Biden was legitimately elected president, and of those, 20% support Trump if the election were held today (75% Biden). Thirty-five percent say Biden was not legitimately elected and nearly all of them back Trump (97%).

Republican candidates for the U.S. House fare slightly better than their presidential standard-bearer in a 2024 matchup. When asked about their congressional vote, 46% of Pennsylvania voters would go for the Democratic candidate in their district vs. 49% for the Republican.

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Conducted March 7-11 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,149 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (222) and cellphones (632) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (295). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.

Check out more recent surveys from Fox News Polling:

Michigan (Feb. 8-12)

North Carolina (Feb. 8-12)

Georgia (Jan. 26-30)

Wisconsin (Jan. 26-30)