Fox News Poll: Kelly up in Arizona Senate race, Hobbs & Lake battle for governorship

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s advantage over Republican challenger Blake Masters narrows, as the Arizona governor’s race also tightens.  In addition, a larger share of Republicans than Democrats is more enthused to vote this year.

That’s according to the latest Fox News survey of Arizona registered voters, released Thursday.

The poll finds 46% would support Kelly if voting today, while 40% would back Masters. That 6-point advantage is within the margin of sampling error -- and down from 8 points in August, when 50% supported Kelly vs. 42% for Masters.

Another 15% are either backing someone else, undecided, or won’t vote.

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Among only those certain they will vote, the race barely shifts: 47% for Kelly vs. 42% Masters.

Over half of Republicans feel more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year (53%) while Democrats don’t quite reach half (46%).

The issues most important to the Senate race are border security (18%), the preservation of American Democracy (18%), inflation (17%), and abortion (17%).

Most of those prioritizing abortion and democracy back Kelly, while most emphasizing inflation and border security favor Masters.

As in many states, abortion became a key issue in Arizona after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.

Almost half of voters (46%) are angry about the ruling, while 27% are happy, and 21% are indifferent.

Among voters happy about the decision, fully 93% are certain they will vote, while angry voters are less so at 84%. 

On September 22, an Arizona Superior Court Judge reinstated a 1901 abortion law that mostly prohibits the procedure, even in the cases of rape and incest.

The survey was conducted September 22-26.

When it comes to the candidates, voters are more concerned that Masters’ views are too extreme (47%) than they are Kelly’s (38%).

Kelly is bolstered by more backers supporting him enthusiastically (66%) than Masters (41%).  Masters’ supporters are more likely to support him with reservations (32%) or because they dislike the other candidates (24%).

 It is no surprise former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Masters in June helped him secure the GOP nomination, as more Republicans in Arizona describe themselves as supporters of the MAGA movement (43%) than say they are supporters of the Republican Party (36%).

Nine-in-ten MAGA supporters back Trump’s man, while just six-in-ten of those who consider themselves more supporters of the GOP back Masters (22% back Kelly).

Overall, more self-identified Democrats support Kelly (92%) than self-identified Republicans do Masters (76%).

"The critical problem for Masters is he’s hemorrhaging Republican voters," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "This poll shows a good partisan environment for Republicans: they have the edge on party affiliation and on the issues. But you cannot lose one-quarter of your party’s voters and win in a competitive state. Convincing those wayward Republicans to come home is far and away his most pressing challenge."

Kelly is up by 21 points among independents, 15 among women, and 11 among voters under age 45, while Masters is ahead by 42 points among White evangelical Christians, 21 among rural Whites, and 15 among White men with no college degree.  Kelly is up 8 points among Hispanics, down from a 20-point lead in August.

In addition, the governor’s race has tightened, with Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs up over Republican Kari Lake by just 1 point. That edge transfers to Lake, however, when looking only at those who are certain they will vote (a rating of 10 on a 0-10 scale).

Hobbs tops Lake by 44-43%, down from a 3-point edge in August (47-44%).

That edge flips to Lake among the subgroup of those certain to vote: 45% Hobbs vs. 46% Lake.

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Lake was endorsed by Trump, and her popularity among Republicans who support MAGA is strong, with 94% backing her.  But like Masters, only 67% of those describing themselves as more supporters of the GOP back her.

Some 81% of Republicans overall back Lake, while 9% favor Hobbs. 

Hobbs enjoys strong party loyalty, with 90% of self-identified Democrats backing her.

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Lake backers (57%) are more likely to support her enthusiastically than Hobbs’ backers (51%) -- a shift from August, when 53% were enthusiastic for Lake vs. 54% for Hobbs.

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Both races suggest Arizona stays purple, with Trump having won the Grand Canyon State by 4 percentage points in 2016 and Biden taking it by less than a point in 2020.

Conducted September 22-26, 2022 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes telephone interviews (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among 1,008 Arizona voters, randomly selected from a statewide voter file.  Interviews were conducted by bilingual interviewers and respondents were given the option of completing the survey in English or Spanish. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.