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Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania and the latest Fox News Poll shows the race is as close as it gets.
The survey, released Wednesday, finds Harris and Trump tied among likely voters in the expanded ballot with 48% each, while just 3% say they are supporting a third party. In September, Trump had a 1-point edge over Harris and 4% favored someone else.
In the two-way matchup among likely voters, Trump is up by 1 point (50% to 49% Harris).
Among registered voters, however, Harris is up 2 points in both the expanded ballot and two-way head-to-head. All the results among registered and likely voters are within the margin of error.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton by less than a point in 2016, while President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by just over 1 point.
The rest of the analysis focuses on likely voters and the expanded ballot (unless otherwise noted).
One of the reasons the race is so tight is there is a smaller (and more balanced) gender gap here than nationally or in other states -- Harris is up 4 points among women while Trump is up 4 points among men.
Unlike in some other states, Harris does well among voters under age 35. Among young voters, she’s up 18 points over Trump, an improvement on her 14-point lead last month. She also has a 5-point advantage among voters ages 65 and over (it was tied in September).
There are large education and community gaps. White voters with a degree back Harris by 13 points while Whites without a degree go for Trump by 15 points. In urban areas, Harris leads by 30 points, whereas rural voters have Trump up by 18 points.
Another positive for Trump comes from being favored by 5 points among the small subgroup of independents (within the margin of error).
Still, more Democrats back Harris (93%) than Republicans do Trump (89%) and among the small subgroup of non-MAGA Republicans, over a third (35%) back Harris (Trump still gets a majority 59% support).
As has been the case for the entire election cycle, voters see Trump as better at handling the economy, although by a smaller 4-point edge than he has nationally (+7). That’s also down from an 8-point lead last month.
Additionally, 44% feel they are falling behind financially, about where it’s been since February, but far more than the 26% who felt that way in September 2020.
"The reality is the race in Pennsylvania hasn’t moved much over the entirety of this campaign," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Given the negative perceptions of the economy and her position as vice president, it is somewhat amazing Harris has been able to win many Pennsylvania voters over on improving the financial situation of the middle class. But if Trump can reduce defection rates among non-MAGA Republicans, there’s a good chance he’ll squeak by."
Trump is seen as better at handling immigration by 16 points and the Middle East conflict by 7 points.
Harris is viewed as better at handling election integrity (+7) and abortion (+20).
Among those trusting Trump on immigration, 13% support Harris in the ballot test, while 15% of those who trust Harris on abortion back Trump.
On characteristics, voters prefer Harris for having the right temperament (+7), helping the middle class (+6), protecting American democracy (+5), and fighting for people like you (+4).
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Trump has small advantages in being a strong leader (+3) and saying what he believes (+2). Voters are split on who would bring needed change.
"Pennsylvania is clearly a toss-up going into the election, but what little movement there is seems to be toward Harris," says Anderson. "I wouldn’t call it momentum, but maybe a tilt toward her on protecting democracy and temperament that could be consequential as Trump continues to talk about the enemy within and retribution for political rivals."
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A few more things…
-- Among Pennsylvania likely voters, Harris has a 49% favorable rating and 51% unfavorable for a net rating of -2. For Trump, it’s -7 (46% favorable, 53% unfavorable). Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has a net rating of +1 (47-46%) while Ohio Senator JD Vance is underwater by 4 (45-49%). President Joe Biden fares the worst, with a net rating of -18 (41-59%).
-- A quarter of Pennsylvania likely voters say they have already voted, and they backed Harris over Trump by 35 points. Among the 6 in 10 who are yet to vote and are certain they will, Trump leads by 12 points.
-- Republican candidate Dave McCormick has closed the gap in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is still ahead of McCormick but by just 2 points (50% to 48%), down from a 9-point lead in September (53-44%). This can be partly attributed to Casey losing ground with women – he’s up by 6 points today, down from a 21-point lead in September.
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Conducted October 24-28, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,310 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (196) and cellphones (766) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (348). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,057 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital status.
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