Fox News Poll: Half of Pennsylvanians say Senate debate a factor in their vote

The recent debate between U.S. Senate candidates Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz matters to many Pennsylvania voters.

In one of the closest contests in the upcoming midterm elections, a new Fox News survey finds 51% say the debate is a factor in their Senate vote, and that group favors Oz by over 20 percentage points. Among the nearly half saying it is not at all a factor, Fetterman is preferred by nearly 30 points. 

The statewide registered voter survey was fully conducted after the Oct. 25 debate.

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The poll, released Wednesday, finds the overall vote preference mostly holds steady: Fetterman bests Oz by 45%-42%. Last month, it was 45%-41%. In late July, Fetterman was up by 11 points.

Among voters who say they’re certain to vote or already have, Fetterman is up 47%-43%. 

But the result is far from certain. Fetterman’s edge is within the poll’s margin of sampling error, and 1 in 10 are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. 

And while a growing share of voters are worried about Fetterman’s health, an even larger number remain concerned that Oz may not be familiar enough with Pennsylvania.

Thirty-nine percent are extremely or very worried Fetterman may not be healthy enough to do the job of senator effectively. That’s up from 34% in September and 23% in July.

For Oz, 44% express concern about him being a carpetbagger, down from 52% in July. 

Fetterman suffered a stroke on May 13. Oz lived in New Jersey for decades. 

More independents are worried about Oz’s lack of familiarity with the state (40%) than about Fetterman’s health issues (30%). 

"Because voters have such specific and real concerns about both candidates, this key race for control of the Senate may turn more on which candidate is less concerning to voters than on national political issues," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose firm Beacon Research conducts surveys for Fox News with Republican pollster Daron Shaw.

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Equal numbers of Democratic (46%) and Republican (47%) Pennsylvania voters feel more enthusiastic about casting their ballot this year than usual. 

However, the Democratic candidates have more positive support. For Fetterman, 57% of those backing him do so enthusiastically, while just 37% of Oz’s supporters feel the same way. Most of those backing Oz have reservations about it (37%) or favor him mostly because they dislike their other choices (25%).

In the governor’s race, 64% of Democrat John Shapiro’s support is enthusiastic compared to 46% for Republican Doug Mastriano. 

At the same time, Fetterman’s 57% enthusiastic number is down 11 points since July, when 68% felt that way.

Some 12% of those favoring Oz in the Senate contest split their ticket and switch to Democratic candidate Shapiro in the governor’s race. For comparison, only 1% of Fetterman’s supporters pick the Republican candidate Mastriano. 

Fetterman garners 89% of the vote choice among Democrats, while Oz gets 84% among Republicans. Independents split 31% apiece. 

Oz is up by 10 percentage points among Whites without a college degree, by 12 points among men, and 48 points among White evangelical Christians. Fetterman is preferred by 13 points among voters under age 45, by 15 points among women and by 17 points among college-educated Whites.

Suburban women favor Fetterman by 24 points, while suburban men back Oz by 10 points. 

As was the case in 2020, the poll shows Democrats in Pennsylvania are more likely than Republicans to vote by mail. About 7 voters in 10 say they will cast their ballot in-person, and they break for Oz by 16 points. The one-quarter voting by mail favor Fetterman by 54 points.

"Everyone watching this race should be prepared for the possibility that Oz will have the lead in early vote counts because Pennsylvania counts in-person ballots first, but that Fetterman could make up the gap as they process and count mail-in ballots," says Shaw.

The candidates are competing to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

The top three issues in the Senate race are inflation (33%), abortion (24%), and election integrity/voting rights (11%). Voters prioritizing inflation prefer Oz by a wide margin, while abortion and election integrity/voting rights voters strongly go for Fetterman. 

Since late July, the number citing inflation is up 6 points and abortion is up 10 points. 

In the governor’s race, half of Pennsylvania voters (50%) are concerned Mastriano’s views are too extreme, while just 29% say the same about Shapiro.  

That helps give Shapiro a nearly 20-point lead over Mastriano, 53%-37%.

Support among partisans tells the story: 93% of Democrats back Shapiro, while just 77% of Republicans support Mastriano. Plus, more than twice as many independents favor Shapiro (49%-21%). 

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In 2020, President Biden won Pennsylvania by just over one percentage point, while former President Donald Trump won by less than a point in 2016. 

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Conducted Oct. 26-30, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News surveys include interviews with 1,005 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file and who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.  

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.