Fox News Poll: Arizona races tighten as support for Republican candidates increases

With a week until Election Day, the latest Fox News poll finds close contests in the Grand Canyon State’s Senate and governor’s races, although more Republicans than Democrats are enthusiastic about heading to the ballot box.  

The survey of Arizona registered voters, released Tuesday, shows Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with a 2-point edge over Republican challenger Blake Masters (47% vs. 45%).  That’s within the margin of error.

The race has tightened since August and September when Kelly was up 8 and 6 points, respectively.

The change can primarily be attributed to Masters solidifying his support among Republican partisans. In September, just 76% of GOPers were backing him compared to 85% today.  Still, 9% defect to Kelly.

On the other side, Kelly has locked down almost all Democrats:  92% went for him in September and the same percentage do now. 

A large plurality of independents continues to go for Kelly (43-25%), but a third is still up for grabs: 32% say they are undecided, would vote for someone else, or won’t vote at all.

Among those saying they are certain to vote (a 10 out of 10), the Republican ticks up one point: 47% for Kelly vs. 46% Masters.

Kelly does best among Hispanics, women, and voters with a college degree, while Masters dominates among White evangelical Christians, rural Whites, and men.

Views split among voters ages 65 and over, suburban voters, and millennials.

"This race is razor-thin, and the concerning thing for Kelly is that Masters still has room to grow his support among the party faithful," say Republican Daron Shaw who conducts the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. "In other words, if partisans ‘come home’ by Election Day, Masters is advantaged."

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Half of voters (51%) are more enthusiastic about voting in this election compared to previous ones, with Republicans (58%) more excited than Democrats (50%). 

Two-thirds (65%) of those favoring Kelly are enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to roughly half (52%) of Masters’ supporters. When asked specifically about their vote, 24% of Masters’ supporters back him with reservations (24%) or because they dislike the other candidates (23%).

"It’s noteworthy that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting generally, but less enthusiastic about supporting their candidate," says Anderson. "That could neutralize what should be a favorable electoral environment for Republicans in Arizona."

Inflation is the top priority to Senate voters, with a quarter naming rising prices as the biggest issue (26%).  The next concerns are border security (20%), abortion (15%), and election integrity (15%), with no other issue reaching double digits.

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Among inflation (+45) and border security voters (+68), Masters is preferred, while abortion (+77) and election voters (+61) go for Kelly.

The governor’s race also sees competitive numbers with 46% supporting Democrat Katie Hobbs and 47% favoring Republican Kari Lake.  That’s a shift from September (44-43%) and August (47-44%), when the Democrat enjoyed a small advantage.

It remains a 1-point contest among those saying they are certain to vote or have already voted: 47% Hobbs, 48% Lake.

Democrats are more likely to support Hobbs (92%) than Republicans are Lake (88%).  Independents prefer Hobbs (38-29%).

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Lake is helped by the fact that by a 20-point margin, more of her supporters are enthusiastic about her (68%) than Hobbs' are (48%).

A not-so-great sign for Republicans: the GOP candidates are seen as more extreme than the Democratic candidates. Nearly half say Masters’ (49% extremely or very) and Lake’s (47%) views are too extreme, while about 4 in 10 say the same of Kelly’s (41%) and Hobbs’ (42%). 

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Conducted October 26-30, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes telephone interviews (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among 1,003 Arizona voters, randomly selected from a statewide voter file.  Interviews were conducted by bilingual interviewers and respondents were given the option of completing the survey in English or Spanish. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.