Trump as president in 2024 is ‘not just possible,’ but likely: Historian

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Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argued that former President Donald Trump is not only a strong candidate for reelection in 2024, but the most likely person to win and take back the White House.

"A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case," Ferguson wrote in an op-ed for The Spectator.

Ferguson explained that even a sustained "campaign of lawfare" against the former president by his political enemies is not enough to stop him from coming back into the White House. In fact, "the prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived," he said. 

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Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argued that former President Donald Trump was not only a strong candidate for reelection in 2024, but the most likely person to win and take back the White House. (James Devaney/GC Images)

Trump was found liable for sexual abuse against writer E. Jean Carroll on May 9 in a verdict that fell short of the accusations of rape that Carroll made. Carroll alleged that Trump sexually abused her in a Manhattan department store nearly three decades ago, though she could not remember "if the alleged assault happened in 1995 or 1996," Ferguson pointed out. 

But even that verdict helps bring attention to Trump, according to Ferguson. "Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination," he wrote.

Ferguson also argued that Trump is the "clear frontrunner" among the Republican field for 2024. A Fox News survey in April showed that Trump maintained a solid, 53 percent lead in April among Republican primary voters, beating out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 32 points. 

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DeSantis has still yet to officially declare for the presidency, though he is highly anticipated to do so. 

DeSantis has still yet to officially declare for the presidency, though he is highly anticipated to do so. 

But even DeSantis’ popularity among some of the Republican base far from guarantees him a chance at beating Trump. As Ferguson explained, the "Republican primary process favours candidates with early leads because most states award delegates on a ‘winner takes all’ or ‘winner takes most’ basis."

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It is a "lesson of history" that is clear, Ferguson said, and one that bodes well for Trump: "The Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election."

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That's because a recession would also help boost Trump’s chances for victory in 2024, Ferguson added, writing that it "does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoover’s presidency. A plain vanilla recession will suffice."