MSNBC's Kornacki says Trump trailing Harris but in better shape than previous two elections

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki said Tuesday that although former President Trump was trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by three points, the former president had come back from worse in previous elections to win or make it very close. 

"If you are a Republican, looking at this poll average coming out of Labor Day, you could take some solace too, because Donald Trump is no stranger to this position, being behind come Labor Day in a presidential election," Kornacki said. 

According to a national polling average, Harris leads Trump 48% to 45% roughly two months out from Election Day. 

"Back in 2016, on average, he was down by five points against Hillary Clinton coming out of Labor Day. Of course, Trump won in 2016. In 2020, on average, he was trailing Joe Biden by an even wider margin. And yet didn’t come back to win, but he came back to come close, Trump did, in the Electoral College," Kornacki said.

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki said Tuesday that based on past elections, former President Trump might be in a better place than Republicans think, despite trailing Vice President Kamala Harris. (Screenshot/MSNBC)

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"Certainly, from Trump’s standpoint here, to be behind three points, in some ways, that might look better than the last two times did," Kornacki added.

He also noted that Democrats would be happy about the national polling average because Harris was leading, a stark contrast to President Biden's poll numbers prior to him dropping out of the race. 

CNN's data guru Henry Enten made a similar argument in August, noting that Trump has been historically underestimated in polling. 

Enten said Trump was underestimated by nine points on average in 2016 and by three points on average in 2020 in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Former President Trump speaks during a campaign event in Asheboro, North Carolina, on Aug. 21. (Kate Medley for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

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"The bottom line is this: If you have any idea — if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years," Enten said, based on polling from early August.

Nate Silver, a polling and data guru, joined Fox News' Bret Baier in August and also noted Trump had been underestimated in the past. 

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"One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections, they underestimated Trump," he said, noting that Harris had a slight advantage in the polls at the time, all within the margin of error.