In the year of 2024, we may witness the most divisive presidential election in American history since… 2020.
With a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden looking likelier every day, America is polarized.
These days, Pew surveys show that "Republicans and Democrats view not just the opposing party but also the people in that party in a negative light."
Meanwhile, the share of Americans with a negative opinion about both major political parties is at an all-time high.
Still, in an age of political dysfunction, if you get a Trump and a Biden voter together, one thing that they may agree on could surprise you: They might both like George W. Bush.
They don’t endorse every policy of the Bush presidency, but Americans have a way of changing their minds about the 43rd president. George W. Bush once had the highest approval rating of any American commander in chief in the history of polling – 90% in the days after 9/11. In his last hours in office, however, that figure was down to 34%, Jimmy Carter territory.
Now, 15 years later, some six in 10 Americans, including voters on both sides of the aisle, have a favorable view of George W. Bush.
After two decades of ups and downs, Bush is younger — and more popular — than the most likely Democratic and Republican nominees for president. How did that happen?
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The answer has a lot to do with something that Bush told me when we met at his family compound at Walker’s Point, in Kennebunkport, Maine.
"When it’s over, it’s over. I don’t miss it," he said.
As simple as that idea is, it’s what’s turned the former president’s popularity around after the White House, and it’s necessary for America’s system of government to endure.
Recognizing that "it’s over" meant seeing that it was someone else’s turn — and setting that person up for success.
In Jan. 2009, Barack Obama was about to inherit both the Great Financial Crisis and the Global War on Terror.
To prepare for the handoff, the outgoing president met with the president-elect at the White House on Nov. 10, 2008 — the first time Obama had ever been to the Oval Office.
For 50 years, there had almost always been a Bush in elected office at the national level.
Meanwhile, he'd worked with Congress to stave off another Great Depression and pass the Toxic Assets Relief Program.
In the background, the National Security Council prepared transition memoranda for the next administration, detailing the national-security challenges that would land on their desks on day one.
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When Bush entered office in 2001, the outgoing Clinton staff had removed the "W" keys from the White House keyboards. There would be no such hijinks awaiting the Obama team.
With the decisions now on someone else’s desk, the former president had to re-imagine what he’d do with the time he had left.
For 50 years, there had almost always been a Bush in elected office at the national level, in the Senate, House and White House.
All that changed on Jan. 20, 2009, the day W. left 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
This was a new chapter in American politics, and in the history of the Bush family away from Washington.
When he left office in 2009, his father George H.W. Bush was still alive, making this the first and only moment in American history that there was a father-son pair of former presidents.
W. took advice from 41: Stay out of politics.
As Bush the younger recalled, former President Carter had "made [George H.W. Bush's] life miserable," particularly when it came to the first Gulf War, when Carter lobbied the U.N. Security Council to vote against the U.S. position.
Remembering that experience, George H.W. Bush advised his son, "Second-guessing your successors weakens the institution of the presidency."
George W. Bush got out of politics, and he doesn’t miss the limelight. He doesn’t try to reshape his legacy, a term that I came to learn he disdains.
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He is not introspective.
His party has changed, and his successors have undone much of his work. But his time is over.
History’s final verdict on George W. Bush's presidency may take decades, as it did for Presidents Truman and Reagan.
He found unexpected pastimes.
After reading an essay by Winston Churchill in 2012 – amid that year’s presidential election season – Bush made the unexpected choice of starting a post-presidential career as a painter.
Churchill wrote that "painting is a companion with whom one may hope to walk a great part of life’s journey."
More than a decade later, Bush has now been a painter longer than he was president — and he’s used the medium to draw attention to causes that were a part of his administration and on which he continues to advocate, from veterans’ care to immigration reform.
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When he did briefly re-enter the political arena, supporting his brother Jeb’s unsuccessful 2016 run for president, he remembered why he’d left. At a fundraiser in 2015, Bush told a gathering of Republican donors that he "just [didn’t] like Ted Cruz," a mild insult by today’s standards.
But when the comment leaked, Bush called it "cringeworthy."
He’s stayed far away from the campaign trail since 2016, even as the Republican Party under Donald Trump has moved away from Bush-era policies on everything from the Iraq War to immigration reform.
Opinions about the Bush presidency haven’t improved significantly, though his administration is starting to get a second look.
In what he called a "tough column for a liberal to write," earlier this year, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof described Bush’s PEPFAR program (the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) as "the single best policy of any president in [his] lifetime."
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Since 2003, PEPFAR has saved an estimated 25 million lives – roughly equal to the population of Taiwan.
History’s final verdict on his presidency may take decades, as it did for Presidents Truman and Reagan.
As Bush reminded me, "Historians are still writing books about the other George [Washington]… By the time they get around to me, I’ll be long gone."
For now, at a time when Americans’ faith in our government is near record lows, George W. Bush’s acceptance that "when it’s over, it’s over" has re-earned him the public’s respect.
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Asking and answering how that happened is one way today’s leaders can restore confidence in themselves, and in our institutions.
They may find that the most important act of leadership they can perform is to move on.
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Excerpted from "Life After Power: Seven Presidents and Their Search for Purpose Beyond the White House," © copyright Jared Cohen (Simon & Schuster, Feb. 2024), by special arrangement. All rights reserved.
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