Alec Baldwin likely to 'roll the dice' and go to trial after fatal 'Rust' shooting: experts
Alec Baldwin faces two charges of involuntary manslaughter in connection to the fatal shooting of Halyna Hutchins
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Alec Baldwin could "roll the dice" and push his case to trial now that he's not facing a mandatory five years behind bars, according to legal experts.
The prosecution dropped the firearms enhancement that had been added to one of Baldwin's involuntary manslaughter charges. The "30 Rock" actor was charged in the alternative with two counts of involuntary manslaughter on Jan. 31 in connection to the fatal shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins.
His lawyers argued the enhancement was a "basic legal error" made by the prosecution while explaining that the law did not exist when the shooting took place.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}"Now that the prosecution has lost all its leverage and there is no risk of a five-year mandatory prison sentence, Baldwin and his lawyers will likely roll the dice and push his case to trial," former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani told Fox News Digital. "They have a very strong defense case, jurors like celebrities, and even if Baldwin is convicted, he is facing a maximum of only 18 months in prison."
ALEC BALDWIN SCORES WIN IN ‘RUST' FATAL SHOOTING CASE AS DA DROPS FIREARM ENHANCEMENT
Alec Baldwin is likely to take his case to trial after prosecutors dropped the firearm enhancement against the actor. Baldwin has been charged with two counts of involuntary manslaughter in the fatal shooting of Halyna Hutchins. (Fox News Digital)
Baldwin faces over a year of jail time if convicted, but Rahmani noted the actor could see a much shorter sentence if he takes the case to trial.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}"The judge may give Baldwin a lot less than the max if he is convicted because of the no time probation deal assistant director David Halls received," the lawyer explained. "Judges don't like sentencing disparities."
"I can't see any situation where Baldwin agrees to do time, so unless the district attorney gives him a 'slap on the wrist' type of deal, this case is going to trial."
Criminal defense attorney Kate Mangels explained that the legal victory of having the firearms enhancement removed will "bolster his confidence" on letting the case go to trial.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}"Now that the firearms enhancement has been removed, any potential prison time Baldwin is facing is significantly reduced, and with it, the risks associated with going to trial are reduced," Mangels told Fox News Digital. "In my opinion, this increases the likelihood he will go to trial and fight for a not guilty verdict rather than admitting culpability through a plea agreement. In addition, the removal of the firearms enhancement was a legal victory for Baldwin, which will likely bolster his confidence going into trial."
Alec and Hilaria Baldwin have been married for 10 years and have seven children together. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)
Attorney James Brosnahan, who represented "The Crow" producers after Brandon Lee was shot and killed on the set, emphasized that Baldwin is likely thinking of his career.
"His career is at the front of his mind," Brosnahan told The Hollywood Reporter. "This isn’t going to end in a plea."
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Former U.S. Attorney for the District of New Mexico John Anderson told the outlet that Baldwin likely won't sign a plea agreement that requires him to admit culpability.
"Downgrading charges and decreasing exposure to incarceration increases the likelihood that defendants stick to their guns and go to trial," he explained.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}A legal expert previously told Fox News Digital why Baldwin's lawyers chose to go after the firearms enhancement in the first place.
"The original law that was on the books was very specific in the way it defined ‘brandishing,’ and Baldwin was clearly not in violation of that law or he would have been charged as such," Ted Spaulding, a personal injury lawyer, told Fox News Digital. "Prosecutors were likely searching for something similar that they could charge him with when they found this newer version of the law that, interestingly, has a harsher sentence of five years and looked like something they could win at trial."
"The only issue is the bill was passed months after the shooting took place, and laws cannot be retroactively applied."
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Aerial photo of Bonanza Creek Ranch shows the church where a gun actor Alec Baldwin was holding fired. (Associated Press)
Halyna Hutchins died on the set of "Rust" in October 2021 by a gun Alec Baldwin was holding. (Panish Shea Boyle Ravipudi LLP)
Hutchins died on Oct. 21, 2021, after a gun Baldwin was holding fired on the set of "Rust" in New Mexico. The shot also injured director Joel Souza.
Baldwin is set to make his first court appearance on Feb. 24. He may appear virtually during the hearing, which will be livestreamed on YouTube.
Prosecutors laid out their case against Baldwin in specific detail in the probable cause statement released Jan. 31 and obtained by Fox News Digital.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}"Baldwin's deviation from known standards, practice and protocol directly caused the fatal death of Hutchins," the documents state.
"By not receiving the required training on firearms, not checking the firearm with the armorer, letting the armorer leave the firearms in the church without being present, deviating from the practice of only accepting the firearm from the armorer, not dealing with the safety complaints on set and/or making sure safety meetings were held, putting his finger on the trigger of a real firearm when a replica or rubber gun should have been used, pointing the firearms at Hutchins and Souza, and the overall handling of the firearms in a negligent manner, Baldwin acted with willful disregard for the safety of others and in a manner which endangered other people, specifically Hutchins and Souza."
Alec Baldwin on the "Rust" movie set. (Santa Fe County Sheriff’s Office)